Macro
Precision over consensus. The model's hidden assumption. The question nobody asked.
AGA sees billion-dollar tax gap as states press prediction market fight
The AGA's estimate, offered at the conference, is that states have lost more than a billion dollars in tax revenue since prediction markets scaled.
Eleanor Ashworth
5h ago
Sixth Circuit ruling shifts legal ground as CFTC backs states
Eleanor Ashworth
22h ago
Polymarket bank failure bets draw FCA intervention warning
Eleanor Ashworth
1d ago
Bill Miller Says Kalshi Processed $190 Billion in Sports Bets Tax-Free
Eleanor Ashworth
2d ago
Nevada casino regulator warns prediction market platform Kalshi
Eleanor Ashworth
3d ago
Federal appeals ruling leaves Kalshi's equity contracts exposed
Eleanor Ashworth
4d ago
Nobody knows who owns it. Everyone assumes someone does.
Prediction markets eye equity contracts as SEC exemption opens a path
If a contract settles against a verifiable public outcome — a stock price on a given date, an index level at close — it can be structured to look less like a security and more like an event …
Eleanor Ashworth
5d ago
NCPG searches for new director after Kalshi donation fractures board
Eleanor Ashworth
6d ago
Kalshi loses federal preemption cases as circuit courts rule against it
Eleanor Ashworth
6d ago
Kalshi seeks Supreme Court review after third circuit loss
Eleanor Ashworth
7d ago
Regulators shift focus from Kalshi to Polymarket's terms of service
Eleanor Ashworth
8d ago
MGM pulls out of Caesars bid as Fertitta deal takes hold
Eleanor Ashworth
8d ago
Nobody thinks they are worth hacking. That is the appeal.
DraftKings drops 7.6% as investors weigh Kalshi's NFL growth
6% drop on no earnings news, no regulatory action, and no executive departure is the market asking a structural question about where sports betting margin goes from here.
Eleanor Ashworth
9d ago
State gaming lawmakers ask Supreme Court to weigh Kalshi's legal status
The underlying argument is one I have watched develop in slower form before.
Eleanor Ashworth
10d ago
Ohio's addiction council exit leaves CFTC mention rules without a floor
Eleanor Ashworth
10d ago
Prediction markets surge to $7.64 billion amid volume concerns
Eleanor Ashworth
11d ago
CFTC files crypto rulemaking package after Senate vote fails
Eleanor Ashworth
12d ago
Prediction markets put Healey far ahead in Massachusetts governor race
Eleanor Ashworth
12d ago
Polymarket faces Missouri cease-and-desist alongside Kalshi
The Missouri Attorney General's office sent a cease-and-desist order — the kind that carries legal consequences, not the kind that invites a conversation.
Eleanor Ashworth
13d ago
Half your team has never been in the same room. Pay them anyway.
Election officials' fraud fears over prediction markets reach Maryland
Eleanor Ashworth
14d ago
Dallas Cowboys trading volume exposes Texas prediction market fault line
Eleanor Ashworth
14d ago
Montana pauses Kalshi enforcement while Missouri presses forward
Eleanor Ashworth
15d ago
Missouri's attorney general moves against prediction market platforms
Eleanor Ashworth
16d ago
Tribal leaders left CFTC headquarters without answers on event contracts
Eleanor Ashworth
16d ago
AGA's state court strategy rests on a legal record that cuts both ways
Tres York, the AGA's vice president, cited it to argue that states have the legal tools to treat sports event contracts as illegal gambling without waiting for federal resolution.
Eleanor Ashworth
17d ago
Delaware has never seen you. It doesn't need to.
Texas Republicans consider suing over federal prediction markets
Eleanor Ashworth
18d ago
Polymarket names Warren Jenson CFO as Kalshi widens volume lead
Eleanor Ashworth
18d ago
VGW pays New York $8m to settle sweepstakes casino claims
Eleanor Ashworth
20d ago
Democratic governors put prediction market regulation on meeting agenda
Eleanor Ashworth
21d ago
Kalshi Struggles to Launch European Operations Without ESMA Approval
Eleanor Ashworth
22d ago
CFTC's vague gaming definition leaves European prediction markets at risk
The authority said manipulation and insider trading "reach new levels" on platforms with limited identity verification.
Eleanor Ashworth
22d ago
Underdog drops into five new legal battles after DFS retreat
Underdog Sports surrendered daily fantasy sports licences in seven states and filed federal lawsuits in five others, all within the same week.
Eleanor Ashworth
23d ago
ION and Coinbase build shared infrastructure for Kalshi contracts
Eleanor Ashworth
24d ago
Kalshi logs record trading week as NFL season opens under flat handle
Eleanor Ashworth
24d ago
Robinhood routes event contracts through OG.com as Kalshi ties fray
Eleanor Ashworth
25d ago
Elliott fires competition claim at LME over 2022 nickel cancellations
Eleanor Ashworth
26d ago
AGA's flat NFL handle exposes the cost of prediction market growth
The American Gaming Association's estimate for the 2026 NFL season is $29.
Eleanor Ashworth
26d ago
Polymarket enters foreign exchange with leveraged perpetuals
Eleanor Ashworth
27d ago
ParlayX secures $1.25m funding for prediction market infrastructure
Eleanor Ashworth
28d ago
CFTC tells court CME perpetual futures complaint is misguided
Eleanor Ashworth
29d ago
Bank of America sees Supreme Court deferring Kalshi ruling to 2027
Eleanor Ashworth
30d ago
Prediction market volumes fall for first time in a year
Eleanor Ashworth
31d ago
Sportradar expands Polymarket data deal to cover six new leagues
Eleanor Ashworth
31d ago
Polymarket surveillance chief says midterm controls are ready
Bautista, Polymarket's global head of investigations and intelligence, told Reuters that the company's surveillance systems are prepared for the approaching US midterm elections.
Eleanor Ashworth
33d ago
NFL drops Caesars and rewrites its sportsbook terms
Eleanor Ashworth
33d ago
US launches insider trading cases against prediction market operators
Eleanor Ashworth
35d ago
Kalshi faces fresh legal challenge over prediction markets in Montana
Eleanor Ashworth
36d ago
Third Circuit stands alone as eighty cases rewrite Indian gaming law
Eleanor Ashworth
37d ago
DraftKings pushes prediction market ads into four major states
Eleanor Ashworth
38d ago
Kalshi and Polymarket move into AI prediction contracts
Eleanor Ashworth
38d ago