Crisis Watch
Israeli forces use Qusra homes as barracks amid settler violence
62% — that Palestinian civilian displacement in the northern West Bank accelerates from tactical to systematic within si…
Yen bears hold near ¥160 as intervention threat stalls the break
That is the probability the yen breaches ¥160 against the dollar within the next thirty days, despite the intervention c…
US 10-year yield auction clears at highest level since 2007
That is the probability I assign to US 10-year Treasury yields remaining above 4.…
Japan's fiscal credibility gap widens as Takaichi ties rate policy to spending cuts
At 62%, the person trading yen vol is not speculating — they are hedging against an arithmetic problem that the policy m…
Spotify moves to wall off AI artist profiles from human recommendation feeds
I am adjusting upward from my instinct here — my bias runs toward structural failure — so call this 42% with roughly ±9%…
Unitree Overflow: Retail Frenzy Prices 61% Bubble
Unitree makes humanoid robots, which is real technology with real long-term value; none of that explains 5,526x.…
Ebola Breach: WHO Containment Fails at 71%
Infection rates running above contact-tracing capacity is the specific condition that preceded the 2014 West Africa spir…
Iran Exit: Trump Bids 61% to Fold
Trump wants out of the Iran conflict and cannot find the door.…
Dollar Pivot: Yen Rescue Prices 68% Euro Stress
The exposure is what the dollar's unilateral euro sale reveals about G7 currency architecture — specifically, that it no…