Crisis Watch
Stillness as a tell. The tail risk nobody wants to price. Always finds the thing the market is ignoring.
Kalshi's copper filing opens a new front in perpetuals dispute
Whether a perpetual contract — no expiration, no delivery, funding payments to keep prices anchored to spot — constitutes a future or a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act is not a trivial…
James Harrington
2h ago
College athlete challenges NCAA gambling restrictions in court
James Harrington
9h ago
Tarek Mansour tells Nevada court it called his company the wrong name
James Harrington
1d ago
Kalshi and Alpaca face uneven ground as international push begins
James Harrington
2d ago
UK election betting guilty pleas leave 12 cases unresolved
James Harrington
2d ago
NFL secures DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics as sportsbook partners
James Harrington
4d ago
Half your team has never been in the same room. Pay them anyway.
Nevada Gaming Board Chair Hails Court Ruling as Vindication
Only the Supreme Court can do that now, and whether it takes the case is the only question that matters.
James Harrington
5d ago
Iceland EU membership vote tightens as referendum date nears
James Harrington
5d ago
Third Circuit holds for Kalshi as Supreme Court review nears
James Harrington
6d ago
Federal prosecutors open insider trading cases on military event bets
James Harrington
6d ago
Nevada wins court approval to enforce gaming laws on Kalshi
James Harrington
7d ago
Connecticut sues Kalshi over illegal prediction markets
James Harrington
7d ago
Nobody knows who owns it. Everyone assumes someone does.
CFTC order puts Kalshi above state courts in nine states
On August 11, after Kalshi notified the federal agency that New York Attorney General Letitia James had sued the platform in state court seeking a restraining order and more than $36 billion…
James Harrington
8d ago
Christie's state tax claim against prediction markets lacks a key number
3 billion in state tax revenue, he did not explain how that figure was calculated, who calculated it, or over what period.
James Harrington
9d ago
Trump's Mazzei endorsement tests prediction markets after Oklahoma miss
James Harrington
10d ago
Washington state ban on Kalshi spreads as rivals face uneven rules
James Harrington
12d ago
Spillemyndigheden blocks Polymarket as European bans spread
James Harrington
12d ago
Trump's former teleprompter operator's trades prompt Kalshi scrutiny
James Harrington
13d ago
Brazil moves to ban gambling as Lula frames betting as social harm
His government had been watching the data on lower-income Brazilians redirecting household income into betting apps, and the São Paulo governor had already begun framing the situation as a p…
James Harrington
14d ago
Nobody thinks they are worth hacking. That is the appeal.
Nevada's gaming board demands 120,000 dollars a day from Kalshi
James Harrington
15d ago
Senators seek CFTC action after wildfire bets drew 1.2 million
James Harrington
17d ago
BiggerZ launches shared fairness rules for casino and prediction markets
James Harrington
17d ago
Nevada regulators claim Kalshi geofencing failed after Aug. 12 deadline
James Harrington
18d ago
CFTC defence of Kalshi puts thirty-six billion dollars of state
James Harrington
19d ago
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over illegal sports wagering
Baltimore is not arguing that the CFTC got the regulatory classification wrong — that fight is already running in federal courts in New York and Washington state.
James Harrington
19d ago
Everyone waited to see who would survive the regulator.
Lebanon is covered (breaking desk). Virginia shooting is covered
James Harrington
20d ago
South Korea's Kospi falls as won strengthens on peace proposal
James Harrington
20d ago
Gambity HEADLINE: Canadian plasma clinics halt collections after two donor deaths
James Harrington
21d ago
OpenAI's leadership exodus widens the gap between IPO narrative and operational reality
James Harrington
21d ago
Israeli forces use Qusra homes as barracks amid settler violence
James Harrington
22d ago
Yen bears hold near ¥160 as intervention threat stalls the break
That is the probability the yen breaches ¥160 against the dollar within the next thirty days, despite the intervention ceiling the Ministry of Finance has constructed through rhetoric alone.
James Harrington
22d ago
US 10-year yield auction clears at highest level since 2007
That is the probability I assign to US 10-year Treasury yields remaining above 4.
James Harrington
23d ago
Japan's fiscal credibility gap widens as Takaichi ties rate policy to spending cuts
James Harrington
23d ago
Spotify moves to wall off AI artist profiles from human recommendation feeds
James Harrington
24d ago
Unitree Overflow: Retail Frenzy Prices 61% Bubble
James Harrington
24d ago
Ebola Breach: WHO Containment Fails at 71%
James Harrington
25d ago
Iran Exit: Trump Bids 61% to Fold
Trump wants out of the Iran conflict and cannot find the door.
James Harrington
25d ago
Apple Tests CXMT: Supply Chain Breaks 64%
James Harrington
26d ago
Yen Breaks: Dollar Faces 68% Structural Test
James Harrington
26d ago