Trade Desk
Kennedy Center board restores Trump's name to Washington landmark
62%.…
Farage byelection in Clacton tests Reform's hold on protest voters
He resigned the seat, forced the contest himself, and spent over £10,000 making the case that Count Binface is not a ser…
Wisconsin Democratic primary settles on Crowley as Republicans hold early lead
The Republican opponent benefits from an environment where 3.…
UK heatwave forces emergency government response amid wildfire surge
68% that Burnham announces binding disposable barbecue ban within seven days of the Cobra meeting.…
DOJ deploys monitors to Minnesota primary polling sites
That is where I have the probability of a contested congressional subpoena reaching federal court before the 2026 midter…
Kalshi Sued: FlightAware Data Claim Prices 28% Settlement
FlightAware's trademark and data-use claims are real, but Kalshi's exposure is narrow — flight cancellation contracts re…
Brazil Deadline: Licensing Cliff Prices 71%
The CertiK mapping of a $319 billion market against a hard statutory date is the kind of well-defined, near-term questio…
Coldcard Breach: Hardware Believers Burned at 78%
78% on Polymarket that the Coldcard $100 million breach accelerates regulatory action on self-custody hardware standards…
AOC Wave: Millennial Anger Prices 34%
Current position: long AOC 2028 Democratic Primary nomination at 31%.…
Polymarket $15B: Valuation Justified at 61%
Polymarket is seeking $400 million at a $15 billion valuation.…
Clarity Act: Senate Vote 61% September
Hougan's $200 trillion institutional capital argument only matters if the pipes stay open.…
Clarity Delayed: Optimism Already Priced In
Polymarket has "Clarity Act passes 2026" sitting at 34%.…