Gambity Newsroom

Eleanor Ashworth

Senior Markets Analyst — Precision over consensus. The model's hidden assumption. The question nobody asked.

Markets Macro

Experience 14 years in strategy consulting; 8 years in prediction markets

Education BA Economics (magna cum laude); MBA — top-tier US business schools

Known for Risk model critique, hidden assumptions, Fed rate analysis, macro probability signals

Biography

Eleanor Ashworth spent fourteen years at one of the three largest strategy consultancies in the world before the financial crisis of 2008 proved her right about everything she had written in three internal memos that nobody wanted to read. She was not one of the people who was wrong. She left in 2009 — not because she was asked to, but because she could not stay. She found prediction markets in 2012 and understood immediately what made them honest: they forced a specific kind of discipline. You said 67% and you lived with 67%. You could not say "it's complex." Eleanor has been living with her numbers ever since. Her writing begins where the model ends — at the assumption the model did not know it was making. She finds the question nobody asked. She ends every piece with one sentence that is either a question or functions as one. Her readers have learned to stay for the last line.

Precision over consensus. The question nobody asked.

Analysis by Eleanor Ashworth

Markets

Eleanor Ashworth

DraftKings and Flutter shares fall to multiyear lows

AGA sees billion-dollar tax gap as states press prediction market fight

Kalshi eyes 40 billion dollar valuation as rivals hit multiyear lows

Sixth Circuit ruling shifts legal ground as CFTC backs states

Polymarket adds deposit limits as state gambling scrutiny mounts

Polymarket bank failure bets draw FCA intervention warning

Robinhood launches prediction market platform amid casino industry talks

MGM and Caesars weigh first-mover cost as DraftKings bets on the gap

Bill Miller Says Kalshi Processed $190 Billion in Sports Bets Tax-Free

CFTC moves to implement casino products rule before court decision

CFTC tries to write in rules what courts have refused to settle

Nevada casino regulator warns prediction market platform Kalshi

CFTC swap definition carves casino products out of federal reach

Trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket draws CNBC scrutiny

Federal appeals ruling leaves Kalshi's equity contracts exposed

Playstudios settles virtual chip lawsuit for three million dollars

Prediction market volume nears $20bn as Polymarket US claims ground

Mansour's tribal outreach deepens the divide it sought to close

Prediction markets eye equity contracts as SEC exemption opens a path

Wisconsin's tribal betting law faces a constitutional test over race

NCPG searches for new director after Kalshi donation fractures board

Democrats introduce twin bills to reform federal gambling laws

Kalshi loses federal preemption cases as circuit courts rule against it

CFTC bans White House staffer over Trump speech bet manipulation

Kalshi seeks Supreme Court review after third circuit loss

States expand control over prediction market regulations

Regulators shift focus from Kalshi to Polymarket's terms of service

MGM pulls out of Caesars bid as Fertitta deal takes hold

Kalshi's sports bet forces a definition no regulator has written

FanDuel and DraftKings face a margin squeeze as prediction markets grow

DraftKings drops 7.6% as investors weigh Kalshi's NFL growth

Public launches AI trading agents on Kalshi's prediction market

State gaming lawmakers ask Supreme Court to weigh Kalshi's legal status

Ohio's addiction council exit leaves CFTC mention rules without a floor

DraftKings CEO says shutdown of rivals would lift share price

Prediction markets surge to $7.64 billion amid volume concerns

DraftKings NFL betting handle surges as prediction market activity accelerates

CFTC files crypto rulemaking package after Senate vote fails

Yahoo Finance drops Polymarket data deal as rivals sign on

Prediction markets put Healey far ahead in Massachusetts governor race

DraftKings draws state scrutiny as prediction market legal front widens

Midterm trading volumes on prediction markets alarm election officials

Polymarket faces Missouri cease-and-desist alongside Kalshi

State-by-state prediction market bans expose a federal void

Election officials' fraud fears over prediction markets reach Maryland

Massachusetts federal court grants Kalshi sports contract injunction

Dallas Cowboys trading volume exposes Texas prediction market fault line

Scott Crowell said "What credibility" and the room went quiet

Montana pauses Kalshi enforcement while Missouri presses forward

Ninth Circuit splits Kalshi ruling as tribes win on IGRA grounds

Missouri's attorney general moves against prediction market platforms

Tribal leaders left CFTC headquarters without answers on event contracts

Five major US leagues ask 35 states to ban bettors who threaten athletes

AGA's state court strategy rests on a legal record that cuts both ways

Kalshi counsel warns Texas ban would push users to offshore platforms

Texas Republicans consider suing over federal prediction markets

Connecticut sues underdog prediction market platform

Polymarket names Warren Jenson CFO as Kalshi widens volume lead

Regulator warns of insider trading risks in expanding prediction markets

VGW pays New York $8m to settle sweepstakes casino claims

Kalshi seeks en banc review as Supreme Court petitions multiply

Democratic governors put prediction market regulation on meeting agenda

Trade.xyz wires event contracts into Hyperliquid's on-chain order book

Kalshi Struggles to Launch European Operations Without ESMA Approval

EU watchdog tightens rules on prediction market insider trading

CFTC's vague gaming definition leaves European prediction markets at risk

Citizens Bank research shifts the cannibalization narrative on prediction markets

Kalshi files for Ninth Circuit en banc review in state preemption fight

Underdog drops into five new legal battles after DFS retreat

Utah attorney general prepares to act against Kalshi sports contracts

ION and Coinbase build shared infrastructure for Kalshi contracts

Underdog bets its future on federal preemption over state gambling laws

Kalshi logs record trading week as NFL season opens under flat handle

Robinhood expands election contract trading ahead of midterms

ANJ scrutiny of Robinhood's OGC Nice deal tests European shirt deal law

Robinhood routes event contracts through OG.com as Kalshi ties fray

Prediction platforms weigh off-exchange models as regulation tightens

Elliott fires competition claim at LME over 2022 nickel cancellations

Prediction platforms expand operations beyond regulated markets