Intelligence Brief
Ukraine proposes civilian shipping truce as Black Sea grain corridor collapses
62%.…
22% · shipping truce agreement reached
Trump's monument focus raises questions over second-term policy bandwidth
62%.…
78% · 2026 Senate polls undercount Republicans
Turkey's defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan draws in new members
62%.…
34% · Turkey pact gains new members
Ukraine bombs Novorossiysk base hours after agreeing Vance tanker truce
63%.…
22% · Ukraine-US tanker truce holds
Baltic false-flag risk reshapes NATO Article 5 market odds
62%.…
79% · Article 5 triggered by false-flag
Patriot Gap: European Air Cover Prices 34% Sufficiency
62%.…
22% · European Patriot stocks stay sufficient
Tatarstan Strike: Russia Escalation Odds Hit 61%
61%.…
58% · Russia escalates beyond current target sets
Gaza Fracture: Netanyahu Defies Trump at 78%
78% that the Gaza ceasefire framework collapses before November.…
71% · Gaza ceasefire collapses before November
Iran Bleeds Clock: Midterm Trap Prices 71%
71% that Iran sustains strategic ambiguity through Q1 2027.…
68% · Iran sustains ambiguity Q1 2027
Hormuz Closed: Iran Demands 84% War's End
That is where Gambity's market sits on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed through Q3, and Iran's published demand lis…
82% · Hormuz stays closed through Q3
Graham's Ghost: Senate Votes 86-11 for Sanctions
83% — the probability this bill stalls or is gutted in the House before reaching Trump's desk.…
17% · Russia-Iran sanctions bill passes into law