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Intelligence Brief

The structure beneath the structure. What the market doesn't know it doesn't know.

Intelligence Brief

Wisconsin joins multistate push against Kalshi sports contracts

The conventional read of this moment holds that Kalshi remains in a strong position because the CFTC preemption argument, even weakened, gives the company grounds to contest every state acti…

Diana Pemberton 4h ago
Intelligence Brief

Brazil's health system lawsuit puts betting firms on notice

Diana Pemberton 21h ago
Intelligence Brief

Georgia tribes gain gambling licence advantage over prediction markets

Diana Pemberton 1d ago
Intelligence Brief

CFTC probes Adam Kinzinger for betting on his own pardon

Diana Pemberton 1d ago
Intelligence Brief

Casino executive Tom Reeg warns of daily fantasy sports threat

Diana Pemberton 2d ago
Intelligence Brief

MGM Chief Executive Bill Hornbuckle Steps Down

Diana Pemberton 3d ago
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Nobody knows who owns it. Everyone assumes someone does.

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Intelligence Brief

CFTC's swap redefinition puts White House review ahead of the courts

The first rule would extend the regulatory definition of a swap to cover event contracts traded on platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.

Diana Pemberton 3d ago
Intelligence Brief

Kalshi blocks candidates from wagering on their own elections

Diana Pemberton 4d ago
Intelligence Brief

Play'n GO warns Brazil ban will push gamblers toward unlicensed sites

Diana Pemberton 4d ago
Intelligence Brief

Equity event contracts find no safe harbour as SEC scrutiny sharpens

Diana Pemberton 5d ago
Intelligence Brief

NCPG director search puts responsible gambling's future on the line

Diana Pemberton 6d ago
Intelligence Brief

Mention market ban fails to close the manipulation window

Diana Pemberton 6d ago
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Eleven subscriptions. Nine of them do the same thing.

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Intelligence Brief

DraftKings AI investigation turns on a rule Massachusetts wrote first

Maynard, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission chairman, confirmed Thursday that Executive Director Dean Serpa would engage directly with DraftKings to understand the specifics of its machine-…

Diana Pemberton 7d ago
Intelligence Brief

Sixth Circuit finds Kalshi sports contracts outside federal swap rules

The Sixth Circuit's reasoning turned on a clause in the statutory definition of swaps — the requirement that a contract depend on events "associated with a potential financial, economic, or …

Diana Pemberton 7d ago
Intelligence Brief

Sixth Circuit joins growing judicial consensus against Kalshi

Diana Pemberton 8d ago
Intelligence Brief

Massachusetts Gaming Commission orders AI audit of sportsbooks

Diana Pemberton 9d ago
Intelligence Brief

Robinhood and Crypto.com urge Supreme Court to clarify prediction market rules

Diana Pemberton 10d ago
Intelligence Brief

Kalshi margin proposal locks out retail traders by design

Diana Pemberton 10d ago
Intelligence Brief

Missouri's licensing demand puts six platforms in a 10% tax trap

Missouri's licensed sportsbook operators pay a 10 percent tax on adjusted gross revenue, submit to Gaming Commission oversight, verify that customers are 21 or older, and meet responsible ga…

Diana Pemberton 11d ago
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Delaware has never seen you. It doesn't need to.

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Intelligence Brief

Kalshi margin proposal shifts collateral burden onto the CFTC

Diana Pemberton 11d ago
Intelligence Brief

Polymarket faces CFTC probe as Kalshi contests wash-trading claims

Diana Pemberton 12d ago
Intelligence Brief

New Jersey asks Supreme Court to decide on Kalshi sports contract legality

Diana Pemberton 13d ago
Intelligence Brief

Ninth Circuit tribal ruling leaves Kalshi's en banc bid exposed

Diana Pemberton 13d ago
Intelligence Brief

Buckhout Faces Scrutiny Over Betting on Own Congressional Race

Diana Pemberton 14d ago
Intelligence Brief

Texas governor race becomes proxy battle for prediction market future

What the hearing on 15 September established is that Texas is not a passive jurisdiction waiting to be told what federal law requires.

Diana Pemberton 14d ago
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The spread is where your edge quietly goes to die.

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Intelligence Brief

CLARITY Act fails in Senate as tribal gaming wins Ninth Circuit

Diana Pemberton 15d ago
Intelligence Brief

Tribal leaders leave CFTC with no answers on prediction market rules

Diana Pemberton 15d ago
Intelligence Brief

Massachusetts Gaming Commission quits national problem gambling body

Diana Pemberton 17d ago
Intelligence Brief

Texas argues state sovereignty in federal betting case hearing

Diana Pemberton 18d ago
Intelligence Brief

Pennsylvania Sets October 14 Deadline to Remove Skill Games

Diana Pemberton 18d ago
Intelligence Brief

CLARITY Act cloture vote tests Democratic calculus on crypto

Kalshi's contract on passage before October 2027 ran as high as 64% overnight before settling back.

Diana Pemberton 19d ago
Intelligence Brief

Nebraska sports betting group seeks tax cut for sportsbooks

If voters approve in November, the Nebraska Racing and Gaming Commission would have until June 1, 2027 to write the rules.

Diana Pemberton 19d ago
Intelligence Brief

Nebraska's November ballot puts online sports betting to a public vote

Diana Pemberton 20d ago
Intelligence Brief

Cluster of Polymarket accounts found winning on KPMG-audited firms

Diana Pemberton 21d ago
Intelligence Brief

Third and Ninth Circuits split on sports contract classification

Diana Pemberton 21d ago
Intelligence Brief

Connecticut extends enforcement to eight platforms as Coinbase and Crypto.com join halt orders

Diana Pemberton 22d ago
Intelligence Brief

Yokohama mayor's resignation reopens Japan casino licence race

By July 2026 a third-party law firm had found he routinely called subordinates "morons" and "human scum.

Diana Pemberton 22d ago
Intelligence Brief

ESMA warns Polymarket and Kalshi lack EU authorisation

Diana Pemberton 23d ago
Intelligence Brief

Underdog surrenders DFS licences to fight on federal ground

Diana Pemberton 24d ago
Intelligence Brief

Nevada hands Kalshi a second state court defeat in a week

Diana Pemberton 24d ago
Intelligence Brief

Mexico's cabinet gambling reform puts licensing timeline in play

Diana Pemberton 25d ago
Intelligence Brief

Caesars asks federal court to dismiss Cayuga Nation mobile betting claim

Diana Pemberton 25d ago
Intelligence Brief

CFTC rewrite threatens to hand states the argument Kalshi needs to beat

Diana Pemberton 26d ago
Intelligence Brief

UK consumers use US prediction sites as FCA weighs retail ban lift

When regulators designed to prevent consumer harm instead push consumers toward operators with no regulatory standards at all, the harm function has inverted.

Diana Pemberton 26d ago
Intelligence Brief

Minnesota joins New York and Nevada in suing Kalshi over state authority

Diana Pemberton 27d ago
Intelligence Brief

Pennsylvania treats Shapiro's policy moves as bettable events

Diana Pemberton 27d ago
Intelligence Brief

Ken Paxton declines to comment on prediction markets after Kalshi gifts

Diana Pemberton 28d ago
Intelligence Brief

Crypto.com enters NFL season through Underdog as sportsbooks adjust

Diana Pemberton 28d ago
Intelligence Brief

NFL's second letter names specific plays as manipulation targets

Diana Pemberton 29d ago
Intelligence Brief

NFL letter flags individual-play contracts as manipulation risk

Diana Pemberton 29d ago