Political Markets
UK seizes shadow fleet tanker as legal framework for interdiction hardens
Gambity Prestige puts the probability that the UK successfully defends its shadow fleet interdiction authority in domest…
81% · UK shadow fleet seizure survives court challenge
AOC's 2028 recalibration tests whether Democratic base will trade conviction for compet…
The probability that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secures the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 sits at 34%.…
34% · AOC wins 2028 Democratic nomination
Yabloko barred as Russia's September ballot closes its last door
Gambity Prestige places the probability that Yabloko competes in September's Russian parliamentary elections at 4%.…
5% · Yabloko competes in September elections
Hormuz Detour: GLP-1 Supply Risk Prices 64%
Britain approved its second GLP-1 compound on 10 August 2026, with an NHS coverage decision expected in November.…
64% · GLP-1 EU access disrupted before 2026 ends
Israel Breaks: Gaza Peace Prices Below 30%
The market signal arrived before the diplomatic language did.…
24% · Gaza ceasefire deal reached soon
Iran Signal: Midterms Price War Risk
The 50-to-4 vote looks like a Trump victory — and at the surface level, it is.…
34% · Dems gain Senate control 2026
Blanche Confirmed: Senate Math Holds at 51
The market was pricing Blanche's confirmation at 61% when Murkowski announced her opposition.…
73% · Blanche Senate Confirmation