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Political Markets

The structure beneath the structure. What the market doesn't know it doesn't know.

Diana Pemberton · Political Markets Analyst

Political Markets

CME's Bitcoin perps lawsuit tests whether a label is a legal question

CME's argument is that a contract with no expiration or delivery date satisfies the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of a swap, which would require a different regulatory path.

Diana Pemberton 3h ago

Political Markets

Oklahoma tribes face a weaker hand as Clarity Act advances in Senate

Diana Pemberton 2d ago

Political Markets

Canadian regulators ban prediction markets amid US legal uncertainty

Diana Pemberton 4d ago

Political Markets

Tribal nations join Connecticut lawsuit against Kalshi

Diana Pemberton 5d ago

Political Markets

Judge's Ruling Prompts Dani Lever to Issue Statement

Diana Pemberton 6d ago

Political Markets

Polymarket faces court-backed bans in Denmark and France

Diana Pemberton 13d ago

Nobody became a founder to file expense reports.

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Political Markets

CFTC roadmap leaves self-certification gap unresolved after roundtable

An exchange designates a contract, certifies it meets the Commission's requirements, and the contract goes live unless the CFTC intervenes within a defined window.

Diana Pemberton 14d ago

Political Markets

São Paulo governor frames betting ban as public health emergency

Diana Pemberton 16d ago

Political Markets

Albania reopens online betting licenses after seven years of ban

Diana Pemberton 17d ago

Political Markets

Kushner meets Hamas in Egypt to press Gaza disarmament deal

Diana Pemberton 19d ago

Political Markets

South Korea peace proposal is covered twice. Indonesia earthquake is

Diana Pemberton 20d ago

Political Markets

Belgian student's gold find exposes a €9m gap in European treasure law

Diana Pemberton 21d ago

Eleven subscriptions. Nine of them do the same thing.

Political Markets

UK seizes shadow fleet tanker as legal framework for interdiction hardens

Gambity Prestige puts the probability that the UK successfully defends its shadow fleet interdiction authority in domestic courts at 81%.

Diana Pemberton 22d ago

Political Markets

AOC's 2028 recalibration tests whether Democratic base will trade conviction for compet…

The probability that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secures the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 sits at 34%.

Diana Pemberton 23d ago

Political Markets

Yabloko barred as Russia's September ballot closes its last door

Diana Pemberton 24d ago

Political Markets

Hormuz Detour: GLP-1 Supply Risk Prices 64%

Diana Pemberton 25d ago

Political Markets

Israel Breaks: Gaza Peace Prices Below 30%

Diana Pemberton 26d ago

Political Markets

Iran Signal: Midterms Price War Risk

Diana Pemberton 27d ago