Legal
Never goes to trial. Finds the structural weakness before anyone has filed anything.
CFTC argues CME perpetual futures case lacks legal standing
The CFTC's response, filed Wednesday, was four words before the argument even began: "much ado about nothing.
Michigan gaming regulator ends partnership with gambling council
Kalshi election case remains blocked ahead of fresh court hearing
Oklahoma tribes tell Congress Clarity Act will strip gaming power
Canadian regulators distinguish sports bets from financial contracts
NFL ends partnership with Caesars sportsbook
Your bank has never heard of your country. Mercury has.
Ninth Circuit leaves Kalshi with one path left in Nevada
The Ninth Circuit rejected both the characterization and the preemption claim.
Commodity Exchange Act preemption fails its first appeals court test
Ninth Circuit Court Rejects Kalshi's Challenge to Sports Betting Rules
Montana court rejects Kalshi bid to block state betting law
Nevada imposes daily fines in enforcement power test
CFTC emergency order pits federal authority against state courts
Eleven subscriptions. Nine of them do the same thing.
Kalshi lobbying spend doubles as federal venue fight continues
Kalshi's preemption argument — that the Commodity Exchange Act displaces state authority to regulate CFTC-designated contract markets — is structurally stronger in federal court.
Van Dyke defense calls CFTC amicus bid a back-door prosecution
Van Dyke's defense attorneys called the CFTC a "regulatory wolf" — not a friend of the court but a predator trying to advance its own interests through borrowed standing.
BGC risks 800 million pounds on illegal Premier League bets
California drops settlement talks in antitrust case against Ellison's WBD deal
Fischer warns Clarity Act will fail as states gain power
Kalshi takes federal preemption into New Mexico tribal court
Luana Lopes Lara tells CME chief to learn efficiency at CFTC
"I have more people in my regulatory department than you and your entire company," the CME Group CEO told Kalshi's chief operating officer at the CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee m…
Nobody thinks they are worth hacking. That is the appeal.
Appeals courts handle surge in prediction market legal cases
CFTC manipulation standard leaves remaining mention markets exposed
CFTC seeks public input on compute derivatives ahead of CME launch
Gambling Commission faces pressure over Reform UK donor networks
Novig sues Wisconsin attorney general over sports contracts
Kalshi legal map obscures the theory that decides the outcome
§ 2(e), prohibits states from enforcing gaming or gambling laws against transactions that fall within CFTC jurisdiction.
Delaware has never seen you. It doesn't need to.
Banking pressure on prediction markets hardens as JPMorgan exit
White House meeting puts CFTC chair at the table with prediction
King County judge orders Kalshi to halt most contracts in Washington
Lebanon is covered twice. Indonesia earthquake covered twice.
Looking at what's already been published, and at what these sources actually contain th…
Gambity HEADLINE: French court blocks Macron's social media age restriction law
The Gambity assessment puts the likelihood of substantively equivalent legislation — revised, constitutionally compliant, and enacted within eighteen months — at 31%.
China's tariff transshipment routes face new US enforcement pressure
The Gambity signal on concrete enforcement action within six months sits at 38%.
Mangione plea talks open a federal stalking statute few lawyers have tested
CFTC backs Kalshi as New York preemption fight sharpens
CFTC emergency order tells New York its lawsuit cannot ground Kalshi
CFTC and SEC move jointly against Goliath Ventures in $400 million fraud case
CFTC civil case against soldier paused as criminal prosecution takes precedence
The probability that the CFTC's civil case against Gannon Kenly Van D proceeds to substantive enforcement before any parallel criminal matter resolves sits, on Gambity's analysis, at roughly…