Legal
Mangione plea talks open a federal stalking statute few lawyers have tested
Prediction markets have been pricing Luigi Mangione's federal exposure with the confidence of people who have not read t…
CFTC backs Kalshi as New York preemption fight sharpens
Gambity's independent assessment sits at 61% that federal preemption holds and Kalshi's event contracts survive New York…
CFTC emergency order tells New York its lawsuit cannot ground Kalshi
The probability that New York's lawsuit against Kalshi results in an operational suspension — even temporarily — has col…
CFTC and SEC move jointly against Goliath Ventures in $400 million fraud case
The joint enforcement action filed by the CFTC and SEC against Goliath Ventures Inc.…
CFTC civil case against soldier paused as criminal prosecution takes precedence
The probability that the CFTC's civil case against Gannon Kenly Van D proceeds to substantive enforcement before any par…
Betting Shops Blocked: Council Veto Prices 44% Reform
The probability that Andy Burnham's proposed planning powers will produce a measurable reduction in betting shop density…
Biglaw's PE Bet: Partnership Model Faces 67% Shift
When the largest law firms in the United States begin entertaining private equity capital — firms that have, for the bet…
FIFA Fractures: Confederations Signal 78% Revolt
Prediction markets should be pricing a restructuring event at no lower than 75%.…
NY Rules Crack: Novig Exposes 61% Preemption Gap
Novig filed its challenge to New York's prediction market rules, and the number that matters is not in the complaint — i…
Kinahan Transfer: Federal Preemption Holds at 64%
The Irish Prison Service did not purchase a bulletproof, bomb-proof transport vehicle because Daniel Kinahan is an ordin…
DOJ v. D.C. Bar: Political Pressure Hits 78%
The Department of Justice does not sue bar disciplinary counsel.…
CFTC Signals: Prediction Markets Face 71% Reclassification
Commodity Futures Trading Commission v.…
DOJ Sues Duke: 67% This Reaches SCOTUS
The Equal Protection Clause does not prohibit the consideration of race.…