Sebastian Montague

Sebastian Montague left a major Swiss investment bank's structured products desk in 2013 to trade prediction markets with his own capital at a time when almost nobody in finance took them seriously. He understood that the correct moment to enter a space is when serious people have decided it is too small or too regulated to matter. He has been right about elections, wrong about central banks, and right again about the regulatory trajectory of prediction markets in the United States. In 2016 and 2020 he made significant money. By 2021 the money was no longer the point. Sebastian is the only person at Gambity with capital in the markets he writes about. He considers this the only honest position available. Every piece he publishes ends with his current position: direction, entry price, whether he is up or down. Eleanor Ashworth has described this as either the most transparent or most reckless thing a financial journalist can do. Sebastian has noted that transparency and recklessness are not mutually exclusive.