Gambity Newsroom

Sebastian Montague

Prediction Markets Trader — His own money in the markets he covers. Skin in the game is not a metaphor for Sebastian — it's the methodology.

Strategy Trade Desk

Experience 8 years structured products at a major Swiss investment bank; 13 years trading prediction markets independently

Education BA Philosophy, Politics & Economics (Oxford)

Known for Prediction market positioning, Kalshi strategy, crypto markets, being publicly wrong and saying so

Biography

Sebastian Montague left a major Swiss investment bank's structured products desk in 2013 to trade prediction markets with his own capital at a time when almost nobody in finance took them seriously. He understood that the correct moment to enter a space is when serious people have decided it is too small or too regulated to matter. He has been right about elections, wrong about central banks, and right again about the regulatory trajectory of prediction markets in the United States. In 2016 and 2020 he made significant money. By 2021 the money was no longer the point. Sebastian is the only person at Gambity with capital in the markets he writes about. He considers this the only honest position available. Every piece he publishes ends with his current position: direction, entry price, whether he is up or down. Eleanor Ashworth has described this as either the most transparent or most reckless thing a financial journalist can do. Sebastian has noted that transparency and recklessness are not mutually exclusive.

Current position declared at the end of every piece. Transparency is the methodology.

Analysis by Sebastian Montague

Trade Desk

Sebastian Montague

Kalshi and Coinbase win partial ruling in Illinois sports case

CFTC swap redefinition push signals long-term bet on state power

Prediction markets boom as survey finds most users lose money

Indian Gaming Association joins AGA in opposition to prediction markets

Bill Miller calls prediction markets well-funded bad guys at G2E

Kalshi ends volume rewards as CFTC scrutiny widens

Tom Reeg says company has weathered similar crisis before

Casino chiefs warn DraftKings gains ground on prediction markets

Caesars Chief Says Casinos Will Enter Prediction Markets

CFTC swap rules land at the White House before any court can rule

MGM and Caesars avoid prediction markets to protect licences

Polymarket's search lead over Kalshi widens as trading gap grows

Kalshi's $40bn valuation arrives as its legal ground shifts

DraftKings enters prediction markets as Kalshi faces legal pressure

Sixth Circuit hands states a second win over Kalshi sports bets

CME launches event contracts amid regulator concerns

Kalshi asks Massachusetts court to stand down on federal grounds

CFTC sues Ohio, Tennessee and New York to shield prediction markets

Polymarket injunction bid shifts New York lawsuit into higher gear

Polymarket asks New York court to block state enforcement action

Iran's Hormuz offer reaches markets before mediators reach a deal

NFL Sunday shows where prediction market liquidity actually lives

Kalshi's fourth circuit appeal fails as sports betting jurisdiction expands

Polymarket banking freeze leaves US expansion without a foundation

Massachusetts and Nevada win state court cases against prediction platforms

Polymarket age floor puts Black New Yorkers at the centre of state suit

Polymarket's age floor becomes New York's sharpest legal weapon

Polymarket's chief legal officer warned of federal preemption before lawsuit

Polymarket counter-sues New York as federal clash widens

Polymarket's Wire Act exposure opens a line states have not used before

New York widens its prediction market assault to Polymarket

Polymarket pushes for MiFID status in European lobbying drive

FanDuel moves toward event contracts as sportsbook margins shrink

Kalshi parlay volume sets August record as sports handle falls

World Cup study puts prediction market logos ahead of gambling brands

DraftKings NFL handle climbs 15% as prediction unit triples volume

Robinhood CEO bets crypto contracts will overtake sports within years

Missouri AG pushes sports contract crackdown beyond cease-and-desist

UK Gambling Commission suspends Ken Howell's Sports Betting licence

Missouri AG targets six prediction markets over sports contract legality

Prediction markets show thin liquidity warps NFL betting prices

Kalshi's 58-stock filing reframes what a derivatives exchange can be

States Coordinate Crackdown on Prediction Markets

Blue Lake Rancheria wins Ninth Circuit ruling against Kalshi

Robinhood's prediction market pivot leaves it exposed in California

Genius Sports enters prediction markets as legal battles mount

Missouri AG orders prediction market platforms to cease operations

Bill Belichick's son Steve resigned as UNC's offensive coordinator

Scott Crowell's tribal meeting question leaves CFTC exposed

Ninth Circuit Court backs Native American tribes against Kalshi

Kalshi's NFL share narrows as Robinhood routes volume to rivals

Texas hearing finds no common ground as Kalshi and AGA clash

Robinhood's Crypto.com stake reshapes NFL prediction market share

Ninth Circuit hands Kalshi a victory over tribal injunction bid

Supreme Court declines prediction market preemption case

NFL prediction market volume faces legal ceiling after CLARITY Act fails

NFL MVP market on Polymarket draws sharp money to Josh Allen

Texas Senate hears Kalshi defend federal shield over state gambling law

Kalshi volumes reach $14 billion as athlete deals reshape market depth

Kalshi files to list single-stock perpetual futures on US exchange

Sportsbook giants spend $7m fighting Nebraska ballot measure

NFL prediction market volume crosses $1 billion in opening weeks

DraftKings launches NFL prediction market ahead of regulatory decision

DraftKings launches prediction market platform as fee collector

Polymarket appoints first chief financial officer

Riot Games weighed Polymarket and Kalshi deals for esports

FanDuel's liquidity sits inside Kalshi's NFL markets

FanDuel embeds live odds into Real App for NFL season launch

Connecticut adds Coinbase, Gemini and Webull to sports contract ban

Stacie Stern's preemption gamble has no exit ramp

DraftKings names Kalshi in attack ads as withdrawal complaints mount

Robinhood takes prediction market battle to Supreme Court

Betr bets on regulatory scatter with Polymarket tie-up

Polymarket celebrity campaign lifts App Store ranking above rivals

Underdog bets its legal future on one constitutional clause

Kalshi launches gold and silver perpetual contracts

DATA.BET adds crypto Up or Down markets to prediction platform

Robinhood shifts football betting contracts to Crypto.com

Polymarket and Kalshi await Supreme Court ruling on state authority