Markets
Karoline Leavitt leaves the White House podium three months before midterms
The gap between Karoline Leavitt's departure and a confirmed replacement is 83% likely to narrow within ten days — not b…
Anthropic IPO market implies a valuation the public equity world has not yet priced
A $2 trillion target on a company that has never traded on a public exchange is not a forecast — it is a negotiation ope…
Fed September call hangs on one number that hasn't moved
The September probability sits at 34%.…
Bessent and Takaichi are pulling the yen rescue in opposite directions
-Japan yen intervention holds at 31% — and the gap between that number and the optimism priced elsewhere is exactly wher…
Midterm arithmetic shifts as inflation outlasts the Fed's political window
The number that matters is 34%: Republican approval on economic management, down eleven points in six weeks, and the mid…
Shein's Floor: Sub-$30bn Prices 38% IPO Close
Shein's bankers are now pitching sub-$30 billion to investors — a number that, four years ago, would have read as a misp…
CPI Collision: Fed Cut Window Narrows 61%
The prediction market on a Federal Reserve rate cut by December 2026 sits at 61% — down six points from its post-payroll…
Iran Strait: Oil Supply Risk Hits 71%
Here is the mechanism: roughly 20% of global oil supply transits the Strait.…
Breadth Surge: S&P Rotation Prices 63% Hold
The sectors doing the diffusing matter: energy companies in the S&P posted a 42.…
Europe Recovery: Earnings Up, War Risk 34%
The Stoxx Europe 600 is pricing a war discount that no longer matches the earnings signal.…
Hormuz Strike: Talks Collapse, Oil Spikes 40%
Prediction markets opened the week pricing a Hormuz closure at roughly 28%.…
Fed Independence: Cook Fight Prices 34% Resolution
The current prediction market pricing on Lisa Cook's ouster attempt sits at roughly 34% for successful removal or forced…
Jobs Miss: Fed Hike Priced at 31%
Prediction markets moved fast after the July employment print landed: 23,000 jobs shed where consensus had priced modera…