Strategy
Romania shuts Cernavodă nuclear plant as Danube drought deepens Europe's power crisis
It is 20% of national electricity generation, and it is offline because the Danube has dropped to a level at which the p…
FlightAware withdraws Kalshi suit one day after filing
The gap between what Kalshi's flight-delay markets price and what FlightAware's lawsuit threatened is now 72%.…
FlightAware drops Kalshi flight market suit, leaving the legal question open
The probability that Kalshi's flight-delay markets survive meaningful legal challenge has just moved — and in my assessm…
Wisconsin's Democratic primary exposes the party's unresolved tension
The Gambity Prestige signal on David Crowley winning the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary closed at 61% — a fi…
K-shaped recovery narrows as US consumer data shifts
The probability that the K-shaped divergence in American consumer spending reverses meaningfully within the next twelve …
UK Banks Blink: Crypto Access Clears 64%
The underlying dynamic is one I have been watching since 2023.…
Grayscale Retreat: Altcoin ETF Market Prices 31% Revival
On Polymarket, revival probability for a near-term altcoin ETF wave beyond the established Bitcoin and Ethereum products…
CME Turns Long: Bitcoin Rally at 68%
That's a structural rotation, and on Polymarket the probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026 has …
Drones Over Germany: War Risk Priced at 31%
Long European security risk at 31%.…
Kalshi Polices: Integrity Priced at What?
Long Kalshi governance integrity at 61%.…
Wildfire Bets: Senate at 58% to Ban
Three Democratic senators walked into the CFTC's building with a letter and a political argument dressed as a regulatory…
Genius Sports Deal: Legitimacy Priced at 71%
Long Polymarket mainstream adoption at 0.…
Polymarket Bleeds: Oracle Risk Priced at 34%
Long Polymarket resolution integrity at 61¢.…