GAMBITY
Gambity Strategy

Strategy

His own money in the markets he covers. Skin in the game is not a metaphor for Sebastian — it's the methodology.

Strategy

Fanatics enforces age limits as rivals face underage trading scrutiny

9 billion in trading volume on Kalshi had been generated by users under eighteen.

Sebastian Montague 3h ago
Strategy

Kalshi geofence holds in Michigan as state court issues permanent bar

Sebastian Montague 10h ago
Strategy

Crude Oil Perpetuals Signal Kalshi's Commodity Ambitions

Sebastian Montague 1d ago
Strategy

New Jersey's Supreme Court petition sets up a circuit split ruling

Sebastian Montague 1d ago
Strategy

New Jersey asks Supreme Court to rule on Kalshi state authority

Sebastian Montague 2d ago
Strategy

Kalshi's five enforcement cases put political traders on notice

Sebastian Montague 2d ago
Partner

Nobody thinks they are worth hacking. That is the appeal.

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Strategy

1789 Capital leads one billion dollar Polymarket funding round

was already an adviser to Kalshi, already a partner at 1789 Capital, already a figure whose financial entanglement with the prediction market industry had drawn a congressional inquiry.

Sebastian Montague 3d ago
Strategy

Nationwide warns Gen Z against prediction markets as financial strategy

Sebastian Montague 4d ago
Strategy

44 states now have attorneys general pressing the CFTC to act

Sebastian Montague 4d ago
Strategy

Kalshi calls New York Times sports betting comparison false

Sebastian Montague 5d ago
Strategy

DraftKings and FanDuel see customer satisfaction drop

Sebastian Montague 6d ago
Strategy

High Roller's ROLR platform moves to final launch stage in US

Sebastian Montague 7d ago
Partner

Everyone waited to see who would survive the regulator.

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Strategy

Polymarket signs Sportradar data deal as league talks advance

Kalshi just launched player availability contracts ahead of NFL Week 1.

Sebastian Montague 8d ago
Strategy

Prediction markets converge on California as NFL season nears

The state holds tens of millions of adults who cannot legally place a sports bet, and prediction market operators have spent the summer building toward this moment.

Sebastian Montague 8d ago
Strategy

Kalshi LeBron market paid 11x to bots in milliseconds

Sebastian Montague 9d ago
Strategy

Massachusetts casino revenue holds steady while prediction markets push into new states

Sebastian Montague 9d ago
Strategy

DraftKings launches California prediction markets outside sports betting

Sebastian Montague 10d ago
Strategy

Fifty operators chasing five to eight viable slots in prediction markets

Sebastian Montague 11d ago
Strategy

Polymarket and Kalshi both add parlay products amid legal pressure

The timing is not accidental, and the strategic logic running beneath it is worth unpacking.

Sebastian Montague 11d ago
Partner

Eleven subscriptions. Nine of them do the same thing.

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Strategy

Washington State Joins Michigan and Nevada Without Power Supply

Sebastian Montague 12d ago
Strategy

Vlad Tenev backed mention market curbs without asking for a ban

Sebastian Montague 12d ago
Strategy

Manchester United trophy sales reveal sports market liquidity gaps

Sebastian Montague 13d ago
Strategy

Sports prediction markets face uneven legal access across US states

Sebastian Montague 13d ago
Strategy

QuinnBet customer lost 9,000 pounds in four days with no check raised

Sebastian Montague 14d ago
Strategy

Kalshi sports mention markets suspended as CFTC widens review

The suspension covers contracts where traders could bet on whether a broadcaster would say a specific word during a game — "MVP", "ankle", "redshirt".

Sebastian Montague 15d ago
Partner

The spread is where your edge quietly goes to die.

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Strategy

Ballon d'Or market on Kalshi draws first serious liquidity test

Sebastian Montague 15d ago
Strategy

Kalshi files copper perpetual contract alongside US500 bid

Sebastian Montague 16d ago
Strategy

Novig Files Fifth State Lawsuit Over Federal Preemption

Sebastian Montague 16d ago
Strategy

Kalshi expands contract offerings with cancer drug trial deals

Sebastian Montague 17d ago
Strategy

UKGC finds identity failures blocking withdrawals for verified customers

Sebastian Montague 18d ago
Strategy

Kalshi pushes back on Nevada fine as two-front legal war widens

Kalshi's formal pushback against Nevada's geofencing fine — which has been escalating at $120,000 a day — rests on a federal preemption argument the company has already rehearsed in Washingt…

Sebastian Montague 18d ago
Strategy

Nevada fines Kalshi for geofencing failures as state legal pressure

The Nevada dispute is narrower than the injunction in King County or the consumer protection suit filed by Baltimore, but it is instructive in a different way.

Sebastian Montague 19d ago
Strategy

Prediction markets refer over 100 suspicious trades to authorities in

Sebastian Montague 19d ago
Strategy

Looking at the inception model, the Korea peace proposal is heavily

Sebastian Montague 20d ago
Strategy

Canada moves to expel Trump's ambassador as US-Canada relations deepen in crisis

Sebastian Montague 20d ago
Strategy

American consumer confidence fractures along partisan lines as retail data confirms the…

Sebastian Montague 21d ago
Strategy

AI and automation split America's political map before either party finds the frame

The probability signal on this one sits at 31% — that either major party arrives at the 2026 midterms with a coherent, polling-tested message on artificial intelligence and automation that m…

Sebastian Montague 21d ago
Strategy

Romania shuts Cernavodă nuclear plant as Danube drought deepens Europe's power crisis

Sebastian Montague 22d ago
Strategy

FlightAware withdraws Kalshi suit one day after filing

Sebastian Montague 22d ago
Strategy

FlightAware drops Kalshi flight market suit, leaving the legal question open

Sebastian Montague 23d ago
Strategy

Wisconsin's Democratic primary exposes the party's unresolved tension

Sebastian Montague 23d ago
Strategy

K-shaped recovery narrows as US consumer data shifts

Sebastian Montague 24d ago
Strategy

UK Banks Blink: Crypto Access Clears 64%

Sebastian Montague 24d ago
Strategy

Grayscale Retreat: Altcoin ETF Market Prices 31% Revival

On Polymarket, revival probability for a near-term altcoin ETF wave beyond the established Bitcoin and Ethereum products sits at roughly 31%.

Sebastian Montague 25d ago
Strategy

CME Turns Long: Bitcoin Rally at 68%

Sebastian Montague 25d ago
Strategy

Drones Over Germany: War Risk Priced at 31%

Sebastian Montague 26d ago
Strategy

Kalshi Polices: Integrity Priced at What?

Sebastian Montague 26d ago
Strategy

Wildfire Bets: Senate at 58% to Ban

Sebastian Montague 27d ago
Strategy

Genius Sports Deal: Legitimacy Priced at 71%

Sebastian Montague 27d ago
Strategy

Polymarket Bleeds: Oracle Risk Priced at 34%

Sebastian Montague 28d ago