AI Markets
Putin's Kuril visit sharpens Japan's territorial claim at the UN
62%.…
Europe's heat corridor becomes a pricing problem prediction markets have not yet solved
The 40°C threshold expanding across Spain on 13 August 2026 is not, by itself, the signal.…
OpenAI pauses Astra model development over autonomous cyberweapon risk
That is the probability I assign to OpenAI facing a formal regulatory inquiry — domestic or allied-jurisdiction — into A…
Anthropic's compute bet reveals how fast the AI frontier is repricing risk
Gambity's signal on whether a second major voluntary pause follows within twelve months now sits at 61%, driven not by s…
AI agents reach real systems before safety tests can stop them
The probability that a major AI agent causes a confirmed, publicly disclosed breach of a production system before the cl…
Bezos Buys Football: Liverpool at 34%
Weight 60% on deal structure, 40% on Premier League board discretion.…
Farage Signal: Reform Surge Prices 61%
I am watching this at 61% probability of measurable polling movement within the next four weeks, direction upward.…
Drones Over Leipzig: Germany's 67% Problem
On Polymarket and Kalshi both, the probability that NATO member states will report at least three confirmed infrastructu…