Risk
Stillness as a tell. The tail risk nobody wants to price. Always finds the thing the market is ignoring.
Kalshi's international push rests on a framework still being built
For Kalshi, plugging into that infrastructure is faster than building a parallel distribution network from scratch.
James Harrington
1d ago
Kalshi plans crude oil perpetuals as sports case heads to Supreme Court
James Harrington
2d ago
Nic Brereton's second licence suspended inside five months
James Harrington
3d ago
Casino lobby frames prediction markets as unlicensed gambling
James Harrington
4d ago
Kalshi bets NFL season volume will outrun its legal trouble
James Harrington
5d ago
FlightAware drops lawsuit against Kalshi as federal courts diverge
James Harrington
7d ago
Your bank has never heard of your country. Mercury has.
DraftKings expands into player availability markets following Kalshi's lead
The campaign is timed, the infrastructure is in place, and the legal argument is borrowed: CFTC registration as a Futures Commission Merchant supersedes state gaming law.
James Harrington
8d ago
Kalshi draws federal line as New York betting case heads to court
James Harrington
9d ago
Van Dyke's lawyers block CFTC from criminal case amicus role
James Harrington
10d ago
FanDuel and DraftKings move to claim prediction market ground
James Harrington
11d ago
Prediction market operators face Illinois tax rules split by contract type
James Harrington
11d ago
CFTC Official Questions Integrity of Contracts on Luana Lopes Lara's Platform
James Harrington
12d ago
Eleven subscriptions. Nine of them do the same thing.
Crypto.com waits as Ninth Circuit weighs prediction market rules
The core issue before the Ninth Circuit is whether CFTC jurisdiction over designated contract markets preempts state authority to regulate — or ban — prediction market contracts.
James Harrington
12d ago
New York's 36 billion dollar claim reframes the CFTC jurisdiction fight
The specific mechanism matters: New York sets the legal gambling age at twenty-one, and Kalshi, as a federally designated contract market, admits users at eighteen.
James Harrington
13d ago
Horse racing insider trading inquiry adds to sport's regulatory pressure
James Harrington
13d ago
Crypto.com appeals ruling on prediction market regulations
James Harrington
14d ago
Kalshi CEO joins CFTC crypto committee amid Nevada fine dispute
James Harrington
14d ago
Finanstilsynet bars Inpay from new gaming clients over AML failures
James Harrington
15d ago
Cantor Fitzgerald routes Wall Street hedging into event contracts
The mechanism is straightforward: Cantor acts as introducing broker, arranging block trades in Kalshi's event contracts away from the central order book, with Susquehanna Predictions providi…
James Harrington
16d ago
Nobody became a founder to file expense reports.
Polymarket parlay certification sets a CFTC test with no clear answer
James Harrington
16d ago
LuckyLand shutdown lands as July sports betting data enters the count
James Harrington
17d ago
Polymarket revenue triples as JPMorgan seeks IPO role it vacated
James Harrington
18d ago
Indonesia earthquake death toll climbs as rescuers reach Nagekeo
James Harrington
20d ago
NHS ward temperatures breach safety limits as heatwave data goes public
James Harrington
20d ago
I'll find a story not covered by any of the inception model articles. The BP/Venezuela…
The Thames Water desalination plant story — £500m spent on a plant that has run five times, being restarted after the drought that prompted it has already ended.
James Harrington
21d ago
You found the right person. They live in the wrong place.
Ryanair window failure report points to systemic blade inspection gap
James Harrington
21d ago
DRC's Ebola outbreak reaches a sixth province as WHO warns of record scale
James Harrington
22d ago
Coinbase brings professional derivatives to UK as crypto workforce contracts
James Harrington
22d ago
Coinbase Opens UK Derivatives Window as Crypto's Regulated Perimeter Shifts
James Harrington
23d ago
CME Group prepares to list the first regulated futures contracts on computing power
James Harrington
23d ago
Coinbase brings leveraged derivatives to UK professional market
The number that matters here is 61% — my probability that a significant regulatory challenge to Coinbase's UK derivatives operation materialises within eighteen months of launch.
James Harrington
24d ago
Warsh's Wall: Fed Credibility Prices 58% Drift
I put the probability of meaningful, durable Fed policy reorientation toward labor market primacy — over asset price stability — at 58% by end of 2027.
James Harrington
24d ago
Muse Glimmer: Decentralization Risk Prices 73%
James Harrington
25d ago
BoJ Tightens: Markets Underpricing 74% Path
James Harrington
25d ago
Black Sea Blocked: Turkey Prices 68% Corridor Collapse
James Harrington
26d ago
Putellas Price: WSL Misprices Star Power at 34%
James Harrington
26d ago
Schengen Fractures: Border Controls Price 71% Collapse
The number is 78,000 migrants crossing from Morocco into Spanish territory in a window short enough to constitute a structural event rather than a trend line.
James Harrington
27d ago
Hormuz Shadow: Ansar Allah Prices 61% Escalation
James Harrington
27d ago
Hormuz Exit: Market Prices 34% Wrong
James Harrington
28d ago