Risk
DRC's Ebola outbreak reaches a sixth province as WHO warns of record scale
The 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak killed more than eleven thousand people.…
Coinbase brings professional derivatives to UK as crypto workforce contracts
The arithmetic here is uncomfortable if you look at both ends of it simultaneously.…
Coinbase Opens UK Derivatives Window as Crypto's Regulated Perimeter Shifts
The probability that crypto derivatives trading becomes meaningfully bifurcated — regulated hubs capturing institutional…
CME Group prepares to list the first regulated futures contracts on computing power
The probability that CME's compute futures achieve meaningful open interest — defined here as sustained daily notional a…
Coinbase brings leveraged derivatives to UK professional market
The number that matters here is 61% — my probability that a significant regulatory challenge to Coinbase's UK derivative…
Warsh's Wall: Fed Credibility Prices 58% Drift
I put the probability of meaningful, durable Fed policy reorientation toward labor market primacy — over asset price sta…
Muse Glimmer: Decentralization Risk Prices 73%
The probability that Meta's Muse Glimmer accelerates meaningful AI capability decentralization within eighteen months si…
BoJ Tightens: Markets Underpricing 74% Path
I am putting the probability of at least two additional BoJ rate hikes before the end of 2027 at 74%.…
Black Sea Blocked: Turkey Prices 68% Corridor Collapse
I put the probability of meaningful, sustained Black Sea commercial corridor disruption at 68%, and I want to be precise…
Putellas Price: WSL Misprices Star Power at 34%
34%.…
Schengen Fractures: Border Controls Price 71% Collapse
The number is 78,000 migrants crossing from Morocco into Spanish territory in a window short enough to constitute a stru…
Hormuz Shadow: Ansar Allah Prices 61% Escalation
That is the number ADNOC has documented in attacks since the Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping intensified.…
Hormuz Exit: Market Prices 34% Wrong
I put the probability of that narrative being accurate at 34%.…