Good Judgment Open vs Futuur
| Attribute | Good Judgment Open | Futuur |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2015 | 2019 |
| HQ | New York, USA | Montevideo, Uruguay |
| Type | Crowdsourced Geopolitical Forecasting Platform | Global Real-Money & Play-Money Prediction Platform |
| Regulated | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Valuation | — | — |
| Status | Active | Active |
| Prestige | 88% | 54% |
Good Judgment Open (GJ Open) was launched in 2015 as the public-facing forecasting portal of Good Judgment Inc, a commercial spin-off originating from the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-founded by Wharton professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers alongside UC Berkeley professor Don Moore, the platform stems from research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament, which demonstrated that well-calibrated crowd ensembles systematically outperformed professional intelligence analysts.
Unlike financial orderbook prediction exchanges that rely on real-money or cryptocurrency pricing, GJ Open operates as a non-monetary, probability-based forecasting engine. Participants submit percentage probabilities on complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, public health, and environmental questions. Individual predictions are tracked over time and evaluated using Brier accuracy scores—a mathematical metric measuring probabilistic calibration and resolution accuracy.
Full profile: Good Judgment Open →Futuur was established in 2019 by Tomás Mateo as a global prediction market platform designed to blend crowdsourced intelligence with dual trading environments. Headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, Futuur operates a hybrid forecasting architecture where users can participate in either risk-free play-money pools (denominated in OOMS) or real-money cryptocurrency pools across a wide range of geopolitical, technological, and economic markets.
To ensure constant liquidity across thousands of niche and global questions, Futuur utilizes automated market maker (AMM) algorithms and limit orderbook engines. Users trading with real money can fund positions using major digital assets including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), USD Coin (USDC), Litecoin (LTC), and TRON (TRX). The platform's unique dual-currency structure allows researchers and market participants to compare forecasting accuracy between play-money crowd sentiment and real-money financial stakes.
Full profile: Futuur →