Hypermind vs Good Judgment Open
| Attribute | Hypermind | Good Judgment Open |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2000 | 2015 |
| HQ | Paris, France | New York, USA |
| Type | Collective Intelligence & Play-Money Prediction Market | Crowdsourced Geopolitical Forecasting Platform |
| Regulated | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Valuation | — | — |
| Status | Active | Active |
| Prestige | 72% | 88% |
Hypermind originated in May 2000 as NewsFutures, co-founded by cognitive scientist Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick. Recognized in James Surowiecki's landmark book "The Wisdom of Crowds," NewsFutures was one of the earliest web prediction platforms to demonstrate that play-money markets could rival real-money exchanges in forecasting accuracy. In 2010, the organization transitioned into Lumenogic to offer corporate collective intelligence consulting, before launching its flagship Hypermind platform in 2014 to combine market mechanics with advanced crowd aggregation research.
Operating on a play-money model using virtual "H" currency, Hypermind allocates real-cash reward pools to top-performing forecasters. This structure bypasses financial gambling regulations while maintaining strong performance incentives. The platform employs continuous double-auction orderbooks and specialized algorithms alongside its "Prescience" prediction poll engine, cultivating an invitation-driven pool of vetted champion forecasters recruited from decades of global contests.
Full profile: Hypermind →Good Judgment Open (GJ Open) was launched in 2015 as the public-facing forecasting portal of Good Judgment Inc, a commercial spin-off originating from the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-founded by Wharton professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers alongside UC Berkeley professor Don Moore, the platform stems from research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament, which demonstrated that well-calibrated crowd ensembles systematically outperformed professional intelligence analysts.
Unlike financial orderbook prediction exchanges that rely on real-money or cryptocurrency pricing, GJ Open operates as a non-monetary, probability-based forecasting engine. Participants submit percentage probabilities on complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, public health, and environmental questions. Individual predictions are tracked over time and evaluated using Brier accuracy scores—a mathematical metric measuring probabilistic calibration and resolution accuracy.
Full profile: Good Judgment Open →