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Manifold Markets

Create a prediction market on anything in seconds.

Founded
2021
Valuation
—
Regulated
❌ No
Gambity Prestige
Active
Manifold Markets hosting over 1 million user-created markets by 2028
74%
— Eleanor Ashworth

Manifold Markets was founded in December 2021 by former software engineers Austin Chen, James Grugett, and Stephen Grugett in San Francisco to democratize market creation and rapid crowd forecasting. Operating as a social prediction platform, Manifold allows any user to instantly deploy custom play-money prediction markets on arbitrary binary, multiple-choice, or numeric questions spanning technology, culture, geopolitics, and personal life.

The platform utilizes a proprietary play-money currency called "Mana" (Ṁ) combined with Automated Market Maker (AMM) liquidity pools to support real-time continuous trading. By granting question creators primary resolution authority and offering open, high-throughput developer APIs, Manifold built one of the world's most vibrant crowdsourced forecasting communities and hosts the annual Manifest forecasting conference.

Backed by grant programs including Astral Codex Ten, the FTX Future Fund, and the Survival and Flourishing Fund, Manifold has pioneered social mechanisms such as market bounties, matchmaking experiments, and LLM-driven trading bots to expand global epistemic forecasting.

Timeline
2021
Manifold Founded
Austin Chen, James Grugett, and Stephen Grugett launch Manifold Markets in San Francisco with grant funding.
2022
Early Seed Capital
Secures seed backing from the Astral Codex Ten grant program, FTX Future Fund, and Survival and Flourishing Fund.
2023
Manifest Conference Launch
Hosts the inaugural Manifest forecasting conference in Berkeley, California, establishing a core industry gathering.
2024
Sweepstakes & Bounties Rollout
Introduces temporary sweepstakes mechanics and expanded bounty systems for custom user-created questions.
2026
AI Bot & Agent Integration
Scales automated LLM trading bots and open API integrations across thousands of community-run markets.
Frequently Asked
Manifold was created in late 2021 by software engineers Austin Chen, James Grugett, and Stephen Grugett.
No, Manifold operates primarily on a play-money currency called Mana (Ṁ), allowing free participation without financial deposit requirements.
Yes, any registered user can launch a custom market on any topic in seconds.
By default, markets are resolved directly by the user who created the question, supported by community moderation.
Manifold is based in San Francisco, California.
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