Smarkets vs Polymarket
| Attribute | Smarkets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2008 | 2020 |
| HQ | London, United Kingdom | New York, USA |
| Type | Low-Commission Betting & Prediction Exchange | Decentralized Prediction Market |
| Regulated | ✅ Yes (UK Gambling Commission / Malta Gaming Authority) | ❌ No |
| Valuation | — | $20B+ (2026) |
| Status | Active | Active |
| Prestige | 86% | 82% |
Smarkets was founded in 2008 by former equities trader Jason Trost and software engineer Hunter Morris in London to disrupt legacy bookmakers with financial-grade exchange architecture. Built on Erlang-based event-driven matching infrastructure, Smarkets operates as an agile peer-to-peer prediction marketplace covering global sports, political elections, macroeconomics, and current affairs.
Distinguished by its industry-defining flat 2% commission structure on net market winnings, Smarkets offers unmatched liquidity and transparent order books. The exchange actively welcomes quantitative traders and high-volume market makers by maintaining transparent APIs and strictly prohibiting account restrictions or limits on winning traders.
Full profile: Smarkets →Shayne Coplan was twenty-one years old, a New York University computer science dropout, working alone in a Lower East Side apartment — and then a converted bathroom, for privacy — when he launched Polymarket in June 2020. The idea was straightforward and, at the time, largely ignored: force people to put money behind their predictions, and the resulting prices would tell you more than any poll. The original markets were modest — COVID-19 recovery timelines, the 2020 election — but the founding insight was correct. By the time Joe Biden was called, Polymarket had already been pricing his victory for weeks.
The CFTC settlement in January 2022 was the first near-death experience. Polymarket paid $1.4 million, blocked U.S. users, and moved its international operations through Adventure One Ltd in Panama. What followed was counterintuitive: the platform grew faster outside the United States than it ever had inside. The 2024 presidential election was its breakout moment. Over $3.6 billion was wagered on the single question of who would win the White House. When Polymarket's odds showed Trump at 70% while major polls called it a coin flip, Elon Musk amplified the discrepancy to his 200 million followers. The FBI raid on Coplan's Manhattan apartment in November 2024 — framed by Polymarket as "obvious political retribution" — became, perversely, the best free advertising the platform had ever received.
Full profile: Polymarket →