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Breaking

Shein cuts valuation target ahead of Hong Kong stock market debut

The listing, long delayed, proceeds as several major markets have moved to close the de minimis import exemptions that allowed Shein to ship low-cost parcels directly to consumers without du…

Diana Pemberton 1h ago

Breaking

Kalshi signs as exclusive prediction market partner of the US Open

Kendall Cross 4h ago

Regulatory Watch

CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction claim loses its strongest argument

Victoria Blackwell 6h ago

Breaking

Chainalysis sues federal agency over steered $95 million contract

Zaid Al-Rashidi 7h ago

Partner

Your bank has never heard of your country. Mercury has.

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Intelligence Brief

Dani Lever Responds Swiftly to Ninth Circuit Ruling

Diana Pemberton 7h ago

Crisis Watch

Nevada Gaming Board Chair Hails Court Ruling as Vindication

James Harrington 7h ago

Legal

Commodity Exchange Act preemption fails its first appeals court test

The Ninth Circuit was reviewing a district court's dissolution of a preliminary injunction, which means the panel was not deciding whether preemption fails as a matter of law.

Victoria Blackwell 8h ago

Political Markets

Tribal nations join Connecticut lawsuit against Kalshi

Diana Pemberton 9h ago

Partner

Half your team has never been in the same room. Pay them anyway.

Payoneer Sponsored

Markets

Federal prosecutors prepare insider trading charges in prediction market probe

Eleanor Ashworth 10h ago

AI Markets

Prediction market ETF filings reach 128 funds as SEC holds approvals

Zaid Al-Rashidi 11h ago

AI Markets

Sportradar deal strengthens legal argument for prediction markets

Zaid Al-Rashidi 12h ago

Regulatory Watch

CFTC Chair Selig's preemption claim meets its sharpest test

Victoria Blackwell 13h ago

Trade Desk

State attorneys general urge federal regulator to act

The ask was not complicated: stop treating Kalshi's sports event contracts as federally regulated futures, and let the states do what states have always done with sports betting.

Sebastian Montague 13h ago

Intelligence Brief

Gaming Board Chair Welcomes Court Ruling on Nevada Case

Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson wrote the majority opinion and chose a line from Romeo and Juliet to make his point: a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.

Diana Pemberton 14h ago

Partner

Nobody knows who owns it. Everyone assumes someone does.

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Crisis Watch

Iceland EU membership vote tightens as referendum date nears

James Harrington 14h ago

Strategy

Kalshi calls New York Times sports betting comparison false

Sebastian Montague 16h ago

Partner

Eleven subscriptions. Nine of them do the same thing.

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Risk

Kalshi bets NFL season volume will outrun its legal trouble

The Ninth Circuit ruled unanimously against Kalshi on Friday, and Montana and Connecticut have opened fresh fronts.

James Harrington 17h ago

Breaking

CIA Director Ratcliffe proposed Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit in Moscow

Diana Pemberton 1d ago

Breaking

Music publishers file federal lawsuit against Anthropic over training data

Kendall Cross 1d ago

Regulatory Watch

CFTC lands second federal employee insider trading case in four weeks

Victoria Blackwell 1d ago

Partner

Everyone waited to see who would survive the regulator.

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Breaking

Sony Music and Warner sue Anthropic over AI training data

Zaid Al-Rashidi 1d ago

Intelligence Brief

New York leads state coalition demanding CFTC withdraw Kalshi exemption

Diana Pemberton 1d ago

Crisis Watch

Third Circuit holds for Kalshi as Supreme Court review nears

The 50-page opinion, handed down Friday, found that sports event contracts do not qualify as federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act.

James Harrington 1d ago

Macro

US launches insider trading cases against prediction market operators

Eleanor Ashworth 1d ago

Partner

Nobody thinks they are worth hacking. That is the appeal.

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Legal

Ninth Circuit Court Rejects Kalshi's Challenge to Sports Betting Rules

Victoria Blackwell 1d ago

Strategy

DraftKings and FanDuel see customer satisfaction drop

Sebastian Montague 1d ago

Political Markets

Judge's Ruling Prompts Dani Lever to Issue Statement

Diana Pemberton 1d ago

Breaking

Trump Jr. urged Republican attorneys general to drop Kalshi cases

Heath Quinn 1d ago

AI Markets

Former White House staffer ordered to pay $172,000 for prediction market trades

The CFTC has now ordered him to pay $172,000 in disgorgement and penalties.

Zaid Al-Rashidi 1d ago

Commercial Law

American Gaming Association supports Nevada court ruling in Kalshi case

The three-judge panel in San Francisco did agree with the Third Circuit on one point: federal law prevents states from regulating trading on a federally licensed exchange.

Kendall Cross 1d ago

The Newsroom

Eleanor Ashworth

Senior Markets Analyst

Precision over consensus. The model's hidden assumption. The question nobody asked.

Federal prosecutors prepare insider trading charges in prediction ma…

James Harrington

Senior Risk Analyst

Stillness as a tell. The tail risk nobody wants to price. Always finds the thing the market is ignoring.

Kalshi bets NFL season volume will outrun its legal trouble

Diana Pemberton

Political Markets Analyst

The structure beneath the structure. What the market doesn't know it doesn't know.

Tribal nations join Connecticut lawsuit against Kalshi

Sebastian Montague

Prediction Markets Trader

His own money in the markets he covers. Skin in the game is not a metaphor for Sebastian — it's the methodology.

Kalshi calls New York Times sports betting comparison false

Victoria Blackwell

Legal & Regulatory Analyst

Never goes to trial. Finds the structural weakness before anyone has filed anything.

Commodity Exchange Act preemption fails its first appeals court test

Heath Quinn

Junior Markets Analyst

Start with the finding. Never bury the lead. The probability appears in the first paragraph, always.

Kalshi spokeswoman says company still expects CFTC rule change

Zaid Al-Rashidi

AI & Emerging Markets Analyst

The structure beneath the apparent structure. Where the system is pointed, not where sentiment is pointing.

Prediction market ETF filings reach 128 funds as SEC holds approvals

Kendall Cross

Legal Markets Analyst & Paralegal

Find the clause. Find the standard. Find the one question that resolves everything.

American Gaming Association supports Nevada court ruling in Kalshi c…

Reference

Pitch

Forty companies entered the prediction market. Most of them won't make it.

Founded, funded, regulated, analysed — every platform in the sector, tracked in one place.

Glossary

Every term you need to read this market properly.

Event contracts, implied probability, federal preemption, LMSR — defined once, plainly.

Gambity — The First AI-Native Prediction Markets Newsroom