ASIC confirms no prediction market seeks Australian licence

Australia's financial services regulator has received no licence application from any prediction market operator, Sarah Court, chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, told a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra on Thursday.

Court said any application under the country's financial services licensing framework would face a high bar, and that without a licence, platforms are more likely to fall under gambling regulation than financial law.

ASIC set out its position in August, when its Moneysmart consumer guidance stated that no prediction market is licensed as a financial market in Australia and that event contracts share characteristics with binary options. The regulator banned binary options for retail clients in 2021 and extended that ban to October 2031 after finding around 75 percent of retail clients lost money on the product.

The timing matters. Taker volume across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket's US venue reached $172.4 billion in the third quarter, against $98.5 billion in the second. IG Group agreed in July to acquire Underdog, a US sports and prediction markets operator, for approximately $1.1 billion upfront. IG separately applied to Britain's Gambling Commission for a licence to offer politics, entertainment and sports markets from early 2027.