Canada's trade minister warns deal not done as tariff deadline arrives

Dominic LeBlanc left eight hours of talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Friday evening without a completed agreement, telling reporters that negotiators would work through the night to meet a midnight deadline set by the Trump administration.

Without a deal, a fresh wave of US tariffs on Canadian goods takes effect. Details leaked before the deadline suggest the US would reduce steel and aluminium tariffs from 50% to 25%, and automobile tariffs from 25% to 15%. Canada, in exchange, would remove retaliatory tariffs and consider expanded access for American dairy producers.

Trump told reporters the talks were "moving along" but declined to confirm whether an agreement had been reached. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre called any arrangement that leaves one-sided tariffs on Canadian industry "a bad deal," and Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said Canada should not rush concessions.

The Canada-US trade deal resolution contract on Kalshi moves on a binary outcome: agreement or renewed tariff escalation. LeBlanc's public language — "our job is not finished" — kept that contract live through the final hours of the deadline.

About the analyst

James Harrington

Senior Risk Analyst

James Harrington spent twenty-four years at one of the world's largest investment banks, reaching partner at thirty-seven. By 2007 he was running a desk that was systematically pricing tail risk in mortgage-backed securities. He was right for eighteen months before the crisis arrived.