Democrats push to ban election prediction markets

Democrats move to legislate against election prediction markets after midterm wins

Sen. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Maxine Waters are preparing legislation targeting prediction market platforms following the 2026 midterm elections, in which Kalshi and Polymarket correctly forecast Democratic gains in both chambers.

Kalshi priced a Democratic House majority at between 93% and 94.5% on election day, and a Democratic Senate majority at between 73.5% and 76%. Both outcomes were confirmed. The market favourite won 479 of the first 487 races decided. Election-related contracts across the two platforms drew more than $3 billion in trading volume, with Kalshi accounting for more than $2.5 billion.

Merkley and Waters have cited three concerns: insider trading on contracts tied to nonpublic information, manipulation of prices that could influence public perception of races, and the broader objection to permitting wagers on events such as war and terrorism regardless of market integrity. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. John Curtis raised related questions in bipartisan letters to the platforms before the election.