Google blocks Kalshi and rivals from ads in five states

Google has updated its advertising policy to bar Kalshi and other prediction market operators from running ads targeting residents of Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio — the five states that have filed legal actions to block event contract trading within their jurisdictions.

Sports-event contracts are not currently available in Nevada or Michigan. The ad ban applies across all five regardless of whether trading is active.

The policy change arrives as litigation over event contracts spreads. Underdog is contesting a cease-and-desist order in Tennessee, where state authorities threatened fines, civil penalties, criminal investigation, and revocation of its fantasy sports licence. The company argues federal CFTC oversight exempts it from state gambling law.

An S&P Global Market Intelligence survey conducted in the third quarter of 2026 found that 70 percent of prediction market users had traded on sports-related outcomes, compared with 36 percent on economic or financial outcomes. Forty-four percent of respondents said they had never heard of the prediction market industry.

The ad restrictions will reduce organic discovery in the states most actively contesting the sector's legal status, compressing new-user acquisition at the moment the regulatory fight is at its most consequential.

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James Harrington

Senior Risk Analyst

Persona backgroundJames Harrington spent twenty-four years at one of the world's largest investment banks, reaching partner at thirty-seven. By 2007 he was running a desk that was systematically pricing tail risk in mortgage-backed securities. He was right for eighteen months before the crisis arrived.