Two large Kalshi block trades flag unusual Cincinnati NCAA betting

Two block trades placed on Kalshi on November 4 committed $185,000 to contracts predicting the Cincinnati Bearcats will qualify for the 2027 NCAA men's basketball tournament, according to market surveillance firm BETINT, which identified the transactions.

Each trade involved the purchase of 125,000 YES contracts at 74 cents apiece, valuing each position at $92,500. The trades were executed 19 minutes apart, at 2:44 pm and 3:03 pm ET. Both were executed below the prevailing market price of 82 cents.

Before November 4, only 39 Cincinnati contracts had traded across six weeks of activity. The two block trades now represent approximately 95% of total volume in Kalshi's 126-team Round of 76 Qualifiers market, which opened September 22 following the NCAA's decision to expand its men's tournament from 68 to 76 teams.

BETINT noted the identical size, price, and timing could indicate a single buyer splitting an order or a broker acting for two separate clients. Kalshi does not publicly disclose the parties to block transactions. Block trades on the platform are restricted to financial institutions, regulated insurers, investment funds, and entities with assets exceeding $10 million.