Gambity HEADLINE: Israeli army move to hand West Bank policing to civilian force
62%. That is the probability Israel's military completes a formal transfer of West Bank law enforcement authority to domestic police within eighteen months, based on the current legislative trajectory and the pattern of incremental annexation steps since the Oslo framework began eroding. The plan is not a sudden escalation — it is the latest in a sequence of jurisdictional transfers that each, individually, attracted international condemnation and then continued regardless. Palestine's vice-president has called it a flagrant violation of international law, which is accurate and historically insufficient as a deterrent. The question worth pricing is not whether the transfer happens, but whether any external actor has both the leverage and the will to interrupt it.
