Trump's monument focus raises questions over second-term policy bandwidth
62%. That is the probability the Wisconsin polling miss propagates into a systematic Democratic overcount in November 2026 Senate races — not because the methodological failure is new, but because it has now occurred in two consecutive high-stakes Midwestern contests without structural correction. The pattern is familiar: likely voter screens calibrated to pre-2016 electorates, shy-Republican effects compressing the Republican tail, and a polling industry that adjusts its weights incrementally rather than rebuilding the model. Meanwhile, if Haberman's attention-allocation reporting is accurate — and her sourcing on this administration has been consistent — the executive capacity to convert any Senate majority into legislation is itself constrained. Bandwidth, not ideology, becomes the limiting variable.
