Europe's heat dome forces a nuclear shutdown the grid cannot absorb
62%. That is the probability Romania finds adequate replacement capacity within ten days before rotating blackouts become the operative policy tool. The Cernavodă closure removes 20% of Romanian electricity supply at the precise moment a continent-wide heat dome is driving demand to its structural ceiling — Greece burning, the UK recording 38.1°C at Kew, industrial loads spiking across the bloc. The Danube level that forced the shutdown is not recovering; the heat dome is not moving. Eastern European grid interconnection was stress-tested in 2022 and passed narrowly. This is a different geometry: simultaneous demand surge, no spare hydro, and a neighbour whose nuclear capacity is now offline for reasons the weather controls, not the operator.
What is the probability Europe's grid architecture was ever designed for a summer that runs this hot, this long, this repeatedly?
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