Clarity Delayed: Optimism Already Priced In
Polymarket has "Clarity Act passes 2026" sitting at 34%. That number should be lower. The Senate slip to September isn't a scheduling adjustment — OKX's Rafique said it plainly: Democrats have no incentive to hand Republicans a legislative win before midterms, and legislative incentives are the only calendar that matters in Washington. Meanwhile XRP dropped 5.5% on the week, which tells you exactly where the optimism was concentrated and how fast it exits when the timeline moves. Bitcoin held $65k, which tells you the broader market already knew the Act wasn't load-bearing for institutional positioning — tokenized assets tripling to $7.4B happened without it. The prediction market hasn't caught up to what the price action already knows. Thirty-four percent is generous.
