Kalshi Sued: FlightAware Data Claim Prices 28% Settlement

According to Gambity Prestige analyst Sebastian Montague, the probability of a settlement sits at 22%, meaning the market leans toward full litigation rather than a negotiated resolution. Kalshi has historically avoided settlements that touch its data infrastructure, as any concession could set precedents for how prediction markets source resolution criteria.

FlightAware has filed trademark and data-use claims against Kalshi, alleging improper use of its flight data, which Kalshi relies upon to resolve flight cancellation prediction contracts. Despite the claims being described as legally real, Kalshi's exposure is considered narrow because flight cancellation markets represent only a small portion of a platform now clearing over $10 billion in total volume.

Prediction market analysts, including Sebastian Montague, suggest the financial risk to Kalshi is limited given how thin a slice flight cancellation contracts represent of its overall clearing volume. However, the strategic risk is higher — a loss or forced settlement could constrain how Kalshi and other prediction markets license third-party data for contract resolution going forward.

Kalshi's aggressive legal posture was shaped by its successful preemption fight against the CFTC, which established a precedent of contesting regulatory and legal challenges head-on rather than conceding ground. Sebastian Montague argues this same strategy is now driving Kalshi to resist settlement in the FlightAware dispute, particularly because data infrastructure disputes carry platform-wide implications.