Cultivate Labs vs Good Judgment Open
| Attribute | Cultivate Labs | Good Judgment Open |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2014 | 2015 |
| HQ | Chicago, Illinois, USA | New York, USA |
| Type | Enterprise Internal Prediction & Crowdsourcing Software | Crowdsourced Geopolitical Forecasting Platform |
| Regulated | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Valuation | — | — |
| Status | Active | Active |
| Prestige | 76% | 88% |
Cultivate Labs was founded in 2014 by Adam Siegel and Ben Roesch in Chicago, growing out of their pioneering work with Inkling Markets—one of the earliest Y Combinator-backed enterprise prediction market engines. In 2015, Cultivate Labs officially acquired Inkling Markets to consolidate its technology stack and pivot toward building next-generation crowdsourced intelligence and internal forecasting software tailored for corporate, military, and sovereign intelligence clients.
Unlike public financial exchanges, Cultivate Labs provides private, permissioned B2B software suites—including Cultivate Forecasts and Cultivate Pulse—that capture internal employee and analyst wisdom behind corporate firewalls. The platform supports binary, categorical, and continuous numeric questions, applying advanced time-weighted and accuracy-weighted aggregation algorithms derived from decade-long IARPA research. To satisfy rigorous security postures, the software offers multi-tenant cloud, private cloud, on-premise, and fully air-gapped deployments for classified national security networks.
Full profile: Cultivate Labs →Good Judgment Open (GJ Open) was launched in 2015 as the public-facing forecasting portal of Good Judgment Inc, a commercial spin-off originating from the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-founded by Wharton professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers alongside UC Berkeley professor Don Moore, the platform stems from research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament, which demonstrated that well-calibrated crowd ensembles systematically outperformed professional intelligence analysts.
Unlike financial orderbook prediction exchanges that rely on real-money or cryptocurrency pricing, GJ Open operates as a non-monetary, probability-based forecasting engine. Participants submit percentage probabilities on complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, public health, and environmental questions. Individual predictions are tracked over time and evaluated using Brier accuracy scores—a mathematical metric measuring probabilistic calibration and resolution accuracy.
Full profile: Good Judgment Open →