INFER (formerly Cultivate)
Crowdsourced forecasting for U.S. national security, technology, and public policy.
INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk)—originally launched as Foretell by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) in 2020 with seed funding from Open Philanthropy—was created to provide quantitative early-warning signals for U.S. policy and technology decision-makers. The program transitioned to the University of Maryland's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) under the INFER banner before evolving into the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI), operated by the RAND Corporation in partnership with software developer Cultivate Labs.
Operating as a non-monetary, reputation-scored crowdsourced forecasting ecosystem, INFER utilizes Cultivate Labs' enterprise software engine to capture probability distributions on critical policy questions. The platform decomposes complex geopolitical, artificial intelligence, biosecurity, and microelectronics challenges into discrete, measurable indicators. Forecasts are gathered from a hybrid crowd composed of vetted public forecasters, university researchers, and U.S. government analysts, with individual contributions evaluated using strict Brier score calibration.
INFER serves as an analytical bridge between external collective intelligence and national security planning. By delivering continuous probabilistic trendlines, heatmaps, and structured forecaster rationales directly to stakeholders in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), Department of Defense, and State Department, INFER helps policymakers test core assumptions, identify emerging technological surprises, and reduce institutional blind spots.