INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk)—originally launched as Foretell by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) in 2020 with seed funding from Open Philanthropy—was created to provide quantitative early-warning signals for U.S. policy and technology decision-makers. The program transitioned to the University of Maryland's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) under the INFER banner before evolving into the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI), operated by the RAND Corporation in partnership with software developer Cultivate Labs.
Operating as a non-monetary, reputation-scored crowdsourced forecasting ecosystem, INFER utilizes Cultivate Labs' enterprise software engine to capture probability distributions on critical policy questions. The platform decomposes complex geopolitical, artificial intelligence, biosecurity, and microelectronics challenges into discrete, measurable indicators. Forecasts are gathered from a hybrid crowd composed of vetted public forecasters, university researchers, and U.S. government analysts, with individual contributions evaluated using strict Brier score calibration.
INFER serves as an analytical bridge between external collective intelligence and national security planning. By delivering continuous probabilistic trendlines, heatmaps, and structured forecaster rationales directly to stakeholders in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), Department of Defense, and State Department, INFER helps policymakers test core assumptions, identify emerging technological surprises, and reduce institutional blind spots.
- 2020 Foretell Initiative Launched Georgetown CSET partners with Cultivate Labs under Open Philanthropy funding to launch the Foretell crowdsourced policy forecasting pilot.
- 2022 Transition to INFER Platform Rebranded as INFER under University of Maryland ARLIS management, expanding participation across government and public panels.
- 2024 RAND Corporation Integration RAND assumes leadership of the platform, establishing the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) to embed crowd estimates into RAND policy research.
- 2025 AI & Biosecurity Focus Expands specialized forecasting panels targeting AI competitiveness, advanced computing hardware, and biological risk mitigation.
- 2026 Defense Analytics Integration Embeds real-time quantitative forecasting streams directly into defense intelligence frameworks and policy strategy desks.
INFER (now part of the RAND Forecasting Initiative) is a crowdsourced forecasting program designed to generate probabilistic early warning signals on science, technology, national security, and public policy issues for U.S. government decision-makers.
INFER is led by the RAND Corporation and powered by software developer Cultivate Labs, building upon earlier operational chapters managed by Georgetown CSET and University of Maryland ARLIS.
No, INFER is a non-monetary, reputation-based forecasting site where forecasters submit probability estimates that are scored for accuracy using Brier scoring.
U.S. government agencies—including the White House OSTP, Department of Defense, State Department, and Intelligence Community—use INFER data streams and forecaster rationales to challenge internal assumptions, assess emerging risks, and guide resource allocation.
INFER draws from a hybrid global community that includes vetted public forecasters, academic subject matter experts, and U.S. government analysts.