Metaculus Pro vs Superforecast (Good Judgment Inc.)
| Attribute | Metaculus Pro | Superforecast (Good Judgment Inc.) |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2015 | 2015 |
| HQ | Santa Cruz, California, USA | New York, USA |
| Type | Enterprise Forecasting & Institutional Analytics Service | Commercial Superforecasting & Advisory Firm |
| Regulated | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Valuation | — | — |
| Status | Active | Active |
| Prestige | 86% | 90% |
Metaculus Pro is the institutional enterprise suite and pro forecasting deployment engine operated by Metaculus Inc., a registered Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) founded in 2015 by theoretical physicist Anthony Aguirre, data scientist Max Wainwright, and astrophysicist Greg Laughlin. Established to build global epistemic infrastructure, Metaculus evolved from an open reputation-based crowd forecasting engine into a primary quantitative decision-support layer for global institutions, non-profits, and policy bodies.
Metaculus Pro allows enterprise clients, philanthropic foundations, biosecurity research groups, and government units to launch private forecasting instances or deploy elite "Metaculus Pro Forecasters." Utilizing the platform's proprietary Recalibrated Community Prediction model—which aggregates, recalibrates, and accuracy-weights continuous, binary, and date-range probability distributions—Metaculus delivers high-resolution foresight. Pro Forecasters are hand-selected, track-record-vetted experts who pair calibrated numeric probabilities with transparent qualitative reasoning.
Full profile: Metaculus Pro →Good Judgment Inc. was founded in 2015 as the commercial advisory spin-off of the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-created by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, the company grew out of research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament. That multi-year tournament demonstrated that elite, well-calibrated human crowd panels—trained to minimize cognitive bias—could outperform intelligence community analysts who possessed access to classified information.
The firm operates by curating elite "Superforecasters"—a vetted global network of individuals whose historical probabilistic track records consistently rank in the top 1% to 2% of accuracy using strict Brier score calibration. Good Judgment Inc. aggregates these individual predictions using proprietary algorithms that weight forecasts based on historical accuracy, updating frequency, and cognitive diversity. Rather than operating a public financial market, Good Judgment delivers structured probability forecasts, scenario analyses, and early-warning intelligence directly to enterprise clients.
Full profile: Superforecast (Good Judgment Inc.) →