Superforecast (Good Judgment Inc.)

Good Judgment Inc. was founded in 2015 as the commercial advisory spin-off of the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-created by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, the company grew out of research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament. That multi-year tournament demonstrated that elite, well-calibrated human crowd panels—trained to minimize cognitive bias—could outperform intelligence community analysts who possessed access to classified information.

The firm operates by curating elite "Superforecasters"—a vetted global network of individuals whose historical probabilistic track records consistently rank in the top 1% to 2% of accuracy using strict Brier score calibration. Good Judgment Inc. aggregates these individual predictions using proprietary algorithms that weight forecasts based on historical accuracy, updating frequency, and cognitive diversity. Rather than operating a public financial market, Good Judgment delivers structured probability forecasts, scenario analyses, and early-warning intelligence directly to enterprise clients.

Good Judgment Inc. serves institutional investors, sovereign strategy units, defense organizations, and Fortune 500 corporations, led by CEO Warren Hatch (a former hedge fund partner and certified Superforecaster). Its product suite includes the Future In Sight platform, custom forecasting panels, and corporate executive workshops designed to train leadership teams in probabilistic reasoning, debiasing, and scenario planning. During major global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, Good Judgment's consensus estimates have been cited by central banks and global financial institutions to guide strategic capital allocation.