Good Judgment Inc. was founded in 2015 as the commercial advisory spin-off of the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-created by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, the company grew out of research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament. That multi-year tournament demonstrated that elite, well-calibrated human crowd panels—trained to minimize cognitive bias—could outperform intelligence community analysts who possessed access to classified information.
The firm operates by curating elite "Superforecasters"—a vetted global network of individuals whose historical probabilistic track records consistently rank in the top 1% to 2% of accuracy using strict Brier score calibration. Good Judgment Inc. aggregates these individual predictions using proprietary algorithms that weight forecasts based on historical accuracy, updating frequency, and cognitive diversity. Rather than operating a public financial market, Good Judgment delivers structured probability forecasts, scenario analyses, and early-warning intelligence directly to enterprise clients.
Good Judgment Inc. serves institutional investors, sovereign strategy units, defense organizations, and Fortune 500 corporations, led by CEO Warren Hatch (a former hedge fund partner and certified Superforecaster). Its product suite includes the Future In Sight platform, custom forecasting panels, and corporate executive workshops designed to train leadership teams in probabilistic reasoning, debiasing, and scenario planning. During major global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, Good Judgment's consensus estimates have been cited by central banks and global financial institutions to guide strategic capital allocation.
- 2011 IARPA ACE Tournament Victory The Good Judgment Project launches under IARPA funding, outperforming institutional intelligence baselines by over 50%.
- 2015 Good Judgment Inc. Commercial Launch Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers incorporate Good Judgment Inc. to provide private Superforecaster intelligence feeds to enterprise clients.
- 2015 Publication of "Superforecasting" Tetlock and Dan Gardner publish "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," popularizing the science of probabilistic crowds.
- 2018 Future In Sight Monitoring Launch Launches continuous geopolitical and macroeconomic risk dashboards for hedge funds and enterprise strategy desks.
- 2020 Central Bank & Institutional Citation Vaccine timeline forecasts are adopted by the European Central Bank and major investment banks to guide macroeconomic recovery models.
- 2026 Human-AI Hybrid Ensemble Panels Integrates real-time AI forecasting agents into Superforecaster panels to benchmark human intuition against advanced LLM ensembles.
Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial advisory firm that provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and geopolitical risk intelligence to corporations, financial institutions, and government agencies.
The company was co-founded by decision scientists Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara Mellers following their victory in the IARPA-funded Good Judgment Project.
Superforecasters are selected based on top-tier historical performance across thousands of forecast questions on public platforms like Good Judgment Open, demonstrating exceptional accuracy, calibration, and debiased thinking.
No, Good Judgment Inc. does not operate a trading venue. It delivers structured probability reports, enterprise intelligence dashboards, private forecasting panels, and executive training workshops.
The company is led by CEO Warren Hatch, CFA, a certified Superforecaster and former hedge fund partner.