Superforecast (Good Judgment Inc.) vs Good Judgment Open

Good Judgment Inc. was founded in 2015 as the commercial advisory spin-off of the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-created by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, the company grew out of research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament. That multi-year tournament demonstrated that elite, well-calibrated human crowd panels—trained to minimize cognitive bias—could outperform intelligence community analysts who possessed access to classified information.

The firm operates by curating elite "Superforecasters"—a vetted global network of individuals whose historical probabilistic track records consistently rank in the top 1% to 2% of accuracy using strict Brier score calibration. Good Judgment Inc. aggregates these individual predictions using proprietary algorithms that weight forecasts based on historical accuracy, updating frequency, and cognitive diversity. Rather than operating a public financial market, Good Judgment delivers structured probability forecasts, scenario analyses, and early-warning intelligence directly to enterprise clients.

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Good Judgment Open (GJ Open) was launched in 2015 as the public-facing forecasting portal of Good Judgment Inc, a commercial spin-off originating from the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-founded by Wharton professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers alongside UC Berkeley professor Don Moore, the platform stems from research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament, which demonstrated that well-calibrated crowd ensembles systematically outperformed professional intelligence analysts.

Unlike financial orderbook prediction exchanges that rely on real-money or cryptocurrency pricing, GJ Open operates as a non-monetary, probability-based forecasting engine. Participants submit percentage probabilities on complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, public health, and environmental questions. Individual predictions are tracked over time and evaluated using Brier accuracy scores—a mathematical metric measuring probabilistic calibration and resolution accuracy.

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