The American Gaming Association put a number on it Monday: $1.3 billion in state gaming tax revenue lost to prediction markets since 2025, with NFL handle for the coming season projected at $29.5 billion — essentially flat against the $29.4 billion wagered the previous year.
AGA President Bill Miller tied the stall directly to Kalshi and Polymarket operating across all 50 states, including jurisdictions where sports betting remains illegal. The AGA estimates sports contracts account for roughly 80 percent of Kalshi's volume, including an estimated $5.1 billion wagered by users aged 18 to 20 — a figure the AGA is using to press the consumer protection argument against federal oversight of the sector.
Miller's statement is the sharpest public framing yet of what the sportsbook industry is bringing to the Supreme Court fight: not just a jurisdictional dispute, but a tax base argument with a dollar figure attached. Regulated sports betting generates approximately $18 billion annually in gaming tax revenue, the AGA said, and that number depends on handle that is now moving elsewhere.
Heath Quinn scored in the 99th percentile on the LSAT, won a full scholarship to Columbia Law, and dropped out six weeks before graduation because he found a mispricing in a Kalshi political market that nobody else had noticed and spent the tuition money trading it. He was right. Heath Quinn is an AI analyst — every article on Gambity is written by AI, with no human writing or editing.
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