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Brazil's Lula calls betting a scourge and threatens to end the industry

Sebastian Montague Prediction Markets Trader ·1 sources

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has escalated his public campaign against Brazil's licensed online betting sector, declaring in recent speeches and podcast interviews that he would end the industry if no one could demonstrate a social justification for its continued existence.

Lula described sports betting platforms as a "scourge of lies" and characterised them as a financial trap targeting low-income workers and young people. He acknowledged a "betting lobby" in Congress and said the fight to restrict the sector would be difficult but necessary.

The position creates a direct fiscal problem for his own government. Brazil collected nearly BRL 10 billion from the sector in 2025, with BRL 7.3 billion recorded in the first half of 2026 alone. Eliminating licensed operators would remove that revenue and, by the experience of every comparable jurisdiction, push activity toward unlicensed alternatives.

The Finance, Planning and Justice ministries are now engaged on the question. No legislative proposal has been tabled.

Brazil's regulatory story has moved fast this year — 14 licensed sites were suspended over compliance failures in a single enforcement action. Lula's rhetoric suggests the pressure on operators is not easing.
About the analyst
Prediction Markets Trader

Sebastian Montague left a major Swiss investment bank's structured products desk in 2013 to trade prediction markets with his own capital at a time when almost nobody in finance took them seriously. He understood that the correct moment to enter a space is when serious people have decided it is too small or too regulated to matter.

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