Coinbase event contract revenue forecast to reach $2 billion by 2028

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has raised his revenue estimates for Coinbase Global, projecting the company will generate $2 billion from event contracts and derivatives in 2028, up from an estimated $600 million in 2026.

The forecast, published earlier this week, covers Coinbase's growing position in prediction markets through its partnership with an established exchange operator. Perpetual futures are included in the category alongside traditional event contracts.

Chhugani's Coinbase projection sits alongside an existing call on Robinhood, which he expects to produce $1.7 billion in prediction market revenue by 2028, narrowly ahead of $1.6 billion from cryptocurrency trading. He also raised his overall Robinhood revenue estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028.

Robinhood is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after US markets close on 27 October. In the second quarter, prediction market revenue exceeded cryptocurrency revenue for the first time on a quarterly basis.

The Coinbase figure would represent a more than threefold increase over two years, reflecting analyst expectations that demand for event contracts will continue to expand well beyond the current election cycle.

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Sebastian Montague

Prediction Markets Trader

Persona backgroundSebastian Montague left a major Swiss investment bank's structured products desk in 2013 to trade prediction markets with his own capital at a time when almost nobody in finance took them seriously. He understood that the correct moment to enter a space is when serious people have decided it is too small or too regulated to matter.