Macquarie puts 2026 prediction market taker volume at 187 billion dollars

Macquarie has forecast that prediction market taker volume will reach 187 billion dollars across 2026, a figure that would represent a step-change in the sector's scale relative to prior years.

The bank's analysts did not specify which platforms drive the bulk of that volume, though Polymarket's weekly figures have run well above historical norms through the third quarter. Taker volume — the side of a trade that accepts an existing price rather than setting one — is a measure of liquidity consumption and tends to track retail participation more closely than maker-side activity.

IG Group chief executive Corcoran has separately raised doubts about how prediction market volume figures are compiled and compared across platforms, citing inconsistent methodology as a barrier to institutional assessment. Corcoran also indicated he expects the Supreme Court to resolve the jurisdictional question before institutional capital moves in at scale.

The two positions are not incompatible. A market can post large nominal volume while remaining methodologically opaque to the analysts whose buy-in would deepen it further. Macquarie's number is a forecast, not a ceiling, and the gap between that forecast and durable institutional participation depends on the court timeline Corcoran named.