Three separate prediction markets, operating under different regulatory frameworks and drawing on different pools of capital, have landed within four percentage points of each other on the same question: whether the Federal Reserve will change its benchmark rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Polymarket's contract, carrying $33.9 million in volume, puts the probability of no change at 74 percent. Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, sits at 73.5 percent on roughly $10 million wagered. Myriad lists no change at approximately 71 percent.
The convergence follows the Fed's July meeting, where the FOMC held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favour of a hike. A Reuters poll conducted after that meeting found close to 70 percent of economists expect rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026.
The markets are not unanimous on direction. Polymarket shows a 25 percent probability of a quarter-point hike and less than one percent on a cut, meaning traders are not pricing out a hawkish surprise. That residual hike probability has moved Bitcoin and Ethereum in prior cycles when it widened.
