Susan Collins holds a 36 percent chance of a sixth Senate term on Kalshi

Susan Collins, the four-term Republican senator from Maine, is trading at 36 percent on Kalshi as of Friday morning, with the broader Kalshi Senate model projecting Democrats to hold 52 seats after the midterms.

Collins has survived races her party expected to lose before. In 2020 she defeated Sara Gideon by nine points after most public polling had her trailing. The current market reflects a different environment: a Democrat-leaning national map combined with Maine's ranked-choice voting system, which has previously worked against Republican incumbents in close contests.

The 52-seat Democratic projection, if it holds, would represent a net gain and a working majority without coalition dependence. Maine's second district operates under a separate electoral college allocation, meaning the state will draw national resource attention regardless of the Senate outcome.

Collins has not announced a significant shift in campaign posture. Her opponent has not generated a polling error large enough to move the market off its current read.