Hungary's Orbán era fractures as former ECHR judge takes presidency
62%. András Baka's election as Hungarian president is not a ceremonial event — it is a constitutional stress test with a market-readable outcome. Baka was previously removed from the European Court of Human Rights presidency under circumstances the Strasbourg court itself found procedurally improper. His return, now holding Hungary's highest office, inverts the political architecture Orbán spent fifteen years building. The enforceability question is this: EU structural funds conditionality mechanisms, currently suspended pending Hungarian judicial independence benchmarks, now have a credible trigger. Brussels has the legal framework. It has lacked the institutional interlocutor. At 62%, the market is pricing a moderate probability that this presidency produces a qualifying compliance signal within eighteen months — enough to release funds, not enough to certify full rule-of-law restoration.
