Iran Bleeds Clock: Midterm Trap Prices 71%
71% that Iran sustains strategic ambiguity through Q1 2027. The structure here isn't military — it's electoral. Tehran has identified the precise mechanism: a war that doesn't end costs Trump the House, and a war that ends badly costs him more. The weapons-stockpile erosion the Pentagon is watching is real, but it's the secondary signal. The primary signal is that Iran is pricing American domestic political cycles with more precision than most Washington analysts are comfortable admitting. When a foreign adversary demonstrates better calibration of your own political market than your own institutions do, that's not an intelligence failure — that's an information asymmetry that was always there, waiting to be exploited by whoever had patience and nothing left to lose.
