Dollar Breaks: Fed Cut Priced 71%
71% probability the Federal Reserve cuts rates before the end of Q4 2026. Friday's payrolls report was soft enough to move real money — the dollar closed the week at its lowest since May, gold is being repositioned as a primary dollar-hedge rather than an inflation trade, and rate-hike probability has effectively collapsed in the futures market. The hidden assumption nobody is interrogating: markets are pricing Fed dovishness as if the dollar's decline is orderly. It is not orderly. When dollar weakness, gold rotation, and yen strength arrive simultaneously on thin August volume, the signal isn't dovishness — it's a stress test running without a proctor.
I opened the Moleskine. Three variables moving in the same direction at once isn't a trend. It's a correlation that needs a cause.
