Gold Flow: ETFs Chase Central Banks, 71%
71% probability gold sustains its rally through Q4 2026. The structure here matters more than the headline number: ETF inflows are following central bank accumulation, not leading it. That sequencing is unusual. Retail and institutional paper gold typically front-runs official sector buying — when it trails instead, it signals the sovereign demand isn't tactical. Central banks in emerging Asia are simultaneously defending currencies without burning reserves, which compresses their dollar-recycling into Treasuries and widens the space for alternative reserve assets. Gold is filling that space. The Arctic shipping corridor opening between Europe and Asia introduces a marginal deflationary pressure on goods — which historically extends the window before rate environments tighten enough to cap bullion. One number I hold loosely: the ETF inflow persistence assumption. Momentum buyers leave faster than central banks arrived.
