Yen Surges: Dollar Intervention at 68%
68% probability the Federal Reserve cuts rates before year-end — not because one jobs report constitutes a trend, but because the architecture beneath it does.
The July payrolls figure — negative 23,000 — is not the signal. The signal is what it reveals about the assumption nobody priced: that US labor market resilience was structural rather than compositional. Strip out the sectors held up by tariff-front-running at the ports, and the underlying number was always softer than the headline. Washington's unilateral yen intervention, conducted without ECB coordination until after the fact, tells you something additional — the dollar's management is becoming discretionary in ways that compound rate-path uncertainty. I opened my Moleskine here, because the question nobody is asking is whether the Fed can cut into an intervention regime without signaling permanent dollar weakness.
