Superforecast (Good Judgment Inc.) vs INFER (formerly Cultivate)

Good Judgment Inc. was founded in 2015 as the commercial advisory spin-off of the landmark Good Judgment Project (GJP). Co-created by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, the company grew out of research funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament. That multi-year tournament demonstrated that elite, well-calibrated human crowd panels—trained to minimize cognitive bias—could outperform intelligence community analysts who possessed access to classified information.

The firm operates by curating elite "Superforecasters"—a vetted global network of individuals whose historical probabilistic track records consistently rank in the top 1% to 2% of accuracy using strict Brier score calibration. Good Judgment Inc. aggregates these individual predictions using proprietary algorithms that weight forecasts based on historical accuracy, updating frequency, and cognitive diversity. Rather than operating a public financial market, Good Judgment delivers structured probability forecasts, scenario analyses, and early-warning intelligence directly to enterprise clients.

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INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk)—originally launched as Foretell by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) in 2020 with seed funding from Open Philanthropy—was created to provide quantitative early-warning signals for U.S. policy and technology decision-makers. The program transitioned to the University of Maryland's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) under the INFER banner before evolving into the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI), operated by the RAND Corporation in partnership with software developer Cultivate Labs.

Operating as a non-monetary, reputation-scored crowdsourced forecasting ecosystem, INFER utilizes Cultivate Labs' enterprise software engine to capture probability distributions on critical policy questions. The platform decomposes complex geopolitical, artificial intelligence, biosecurity, and microelectronics challenges into discrete, measurable indicators. Forecasts are gathered from a hybrid crowd composed of vetted public forecasters, university researchers, and U.S. government analysts, with individual contributions evaluated using strict Brier score calibration.

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