Macquarie raises 2026 prediction market volume forecast to $190 billion

Macquarie has raised its 2026 prediction market volume forecast to $190 billion, up from a prior estimate of $169 billion, with sports contracts expected to account for roughly 80% of taker volume. The revision was led by analyst Chad Beynon, who cited continued platform expansion and the rollout of customizable same-game parlays as the primary drivers.

The new figure would represent close to a ninefold increase from the $22 billion recorded in 2025. Taker volume in the first week of September reached $4.3 billion before the NFL season began; prediction markets then set a new single-day record on the opening Sunday of the NFL campaign.

Macquarie identified regulation as the primary downside risk, noting that adverse court rulings on sports event contracts could constrain operator growth. The firm expects the sports share of total volume to decline over time as economics, politics, cryptocurrency and entertainment categories develop.

High Roller Technologies CEO Seth Young, speaking at the Predict 2026 conference in New York, cited a Macquarie figure placing industry revenue opportunity at $50 billion, arguing that a 2% market share would translate into a $1 billion top-line business. High Roller plans to enter the prediction market space in November.