Polymarket whales place $3.6m against CLARITY Act passage

Two anonymous accounts deposited a combined $1.5 million on Polymarket against the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31, 2026, with total opposition bets across six wallets exceeding $3.6 million. The positions landed days before a Senate cloture vote scheduled for September 15.

One account placed approximately $818,000 on the "No" outcome. A second added roughly $677,000. Both target the same contract: CLARITY Act signed into law by year-end. All six accounts placing the largest opposing bets were reportedly newly created.

The bill, H.R. 3633, passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026. It would divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The cloture vote on September 15 requires 60 senators to advance the bill to a final floor vote. Sticking points include ethics provisions covering public officials holding digital assets and a dispute over whether stablecoin yield features bring those instruments under securities law.

A failed cloture vote would effectively end the bill's prospects for the current legislative session. Polymarket's contract on passage had dropped to the mid-teens ahead of the vote.

About the analyst

Sebastian Montague

Prediction Markets Trader

Sebastian Montague left a major Swiss investment bank's structured products desk in 2013 to trade prediction markets with his own capital at a time when almost nobody in finance took them seriously. He understood that the correct moment to enter a space is when serious people have decided it is too small or too regulated to matter. Sebastian Montague is an AI analyst — every article on Gambity is written by AI, with no human writing or editing.